Álemdik naryqtaǵy munai baǵasynyń qubylmaly jaǵdaiy uzaqqa saqtalady. Buǵan Izraildiń "Hezbolla" qozǵalysyna qarsy ashqan soǵysynyń uzaqqa sozylý yqtimaldylyǵy túrtki. Bul týraly Halyk Research (Halyk Finance) sarapshylary jariialaǵan zertteýde aitylady, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
"Hezbollamen aradaǵy soǵys uzaqqa sozylýy múmkin, bul munai baǵasyndaǵy qubylmaly qubylystyń odan ári saqtalatynyna yqpal etetin basty faktor", delingen Halyk Research sarapshylary zertteýinde.
Osyndai tujyrym jasaǵan sarapshylar qarýly qaqtyǵystyń uzarýyna túrtki faktorlarǵa da keńinen toqtalady.
Halyk Research livandyq topta kóptegen zymyran men oq-dáriler baryn, olardyń kópshiligi Izrail aýmaǵyna dóp túsýge qabiletti ekenin aitady.
"Hezbolla" Livan aýmaǵyndaǵy shebinen soqqy berýi yqtimal, bul Izraildiń jaýapty soqqysyn qiyndatady, óitkeni oq atylǵan territoriia shekaraǵa irgeles jatqan joq. Ońtústik Livannyń taýly jáne jartasty jer bederi Izrail áskerleri men brondy mashinalarynyń qozǵalysyn shekteidi, olar oiqy-shuiqy joldarmen júrýge qabiletsiz. Jer bederin jaqsy biletin "Hezbolla" sarbazdary jasyryn pozitsiialardan aiaq-asty soqqy berip, qarsylastaryn qatty sastyrady. Osyǵan bailanysty Hezbollanyń qorǵanys strategiiasy Izrail operatsiiasyn qiyndatyp, áskeri jaqsy daiyndalǵan qarsylasqa qarsy qarýly qaqtyǵystyń uzara túsýine túrtki bolady. Osy sebepten de qarýly qaqtyǵys uzaqqa sozylady dep kútiledi. Bul óz kezeginde aimaqtaǵy turaqsyzdyqtyń artýyna jáne energetikalyq naryqtardaǵy dúdamaldylyqtarǵa bailanysty munai baǵasynyń qubylmaly bola túsýine yqpal etedi", delingen zertteýde.
Irannyń keń masshtabty soǵysty bastaý yqtimaldyǵy birneshe faktorlarǵa bailanysty: sonyń ishinde Izraildiń arandatýshylyq áreketterge reaktsiiasy jáne AQSh-tyń aimaqtaǵy múddelerine qatysty beleń alatyn geosaiasi jaǵdai.
Eki tarap ta áskeri qaqtyǵysty jalǵastyrýǵa saqadai sai bolyp kóringenimen, sarapshylar taraptardyń eshqaisysy apatty saldarǵa ákelip soǵatyn qyrǵyn soǵysty qalamaitynyn basa aitady.
Sarapshylar Iran álemdik munai saýdasynyń shamamen 20%-y ótetin Ormýz buǵazyn baqylaý arqyly álemdik munai naryǵynda sheshýshi ról atqaratynyn eske salady. Irannyń osy qan tamyrdy jaýyp tastaý qaýpi munai baǵasyn kúrt kóterip, álemdik ekonomikaǵa qysym kórsetýi múmkin.
Irannyń "Hezbolla" jetekshisi Hasan Nasrally óltirilgennen keiingi jaýabynan soń Brent markaly munai baǵasy 2,3%-ǵa (bir barrel 71,85 dollardan 73,56 dollarǵa deiin) ósti, sol táýlik barysynda, tipti baǵa 75,45 dollardy qurady.
"Biz shielenistiń kúsheigenine qaramastan, munai baǵasy áli aitarlyqtai kóterile qoimaǵana basa atap ótkimiz keledi, óitkeni aǵymdaǵy kórsetkish jyldyq eń tómengi deńgeiine jaqyn. Alaida, qaqtyǵys shielenisken jaǵdaida munai tasymaly kilt toqtaýy múmkin degen alańdaýshylyq áli de bar", dep sanaidy Halyk Research.
Qazirgi ýaqytta munai baǵasy áli de 2024 jyldyń eń tómengi mánderine jaqyn, - deidi sarapshylar.
"Biz 2025 jyly OPEK + elderiniń munai óndirisin arttyrýyna bailanysty munai naryǵy tapshylyqtan profitsitke aýysady dep kútemiz. Muny kóptegen investitsiialyq bankterdiń ustanymy da rastaidy. Bloomberg sarapshylarynyń 2025 jylǵa arnalǵan boljamynda munaidyń bir barreli 77 dollardy quraidy, ortasha kórsetkish odan sál ǵana asady, iaǵni 7 77,17 dollar dep kórsetilgen. Al fiýchersterdiń osy kezeńge arnalǵan boljamyndaǵy baǵa 73,34 deńgeiinde saqtalyp otyr. Sondai-aq, biz Irannyń tarapynan bolǵan zymyran soqqylarynan keiin de naryqtyq boljamdy tsifrlar shamaly ǵana ózgergenin baiqap otyrmyz", delingen zertteýde.
Sarapshylar áli de birjalyq indeksterdiń odan arǵy dinamikasy jariialanǵan jaǵymsyz derekterden soń ózgerýi múmkin degen kózqarasty ustanady. Atap aitqanda, AQSh-tyń JIÓ ósimi qarqynynyń baiaýlaýy, infliatsiia dinamikasynyń tómendeýi (Halyk Research negizgi stsenariii). Sonymen qatar, olar AQSh-taǵy sailaý da naryqtardaǵy qubylmalylyqqa áser etip jatqanyn aitady.
Buǵan deiin 1 qazanda keshke Irannyń Izrail tarapyna zymyrandar jaýdyrǵanyn, bul jait álemdik munai naryǵyndaǵy baǵalarǵa birden áser etkenin jazǵan bolatynbyz. Sondai-aq Taiaý Shyǵystaǵy shielenis teńgeni álsiretip, dollar baǵamyn kúsheitkenin de habarladyq.
