Sarapshylar infliatsiianyń joǵary boljamdaryna bailanysty biyl alda kútiletin bazalyq mólsherleme kólemin de arttyrdy, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz Ulttyq Banktiń baspasóz qyzmetine silteme jasai otyryp.
Saýalnama ólshemderine Brent markaly munai baǵasy, Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń ósimi, infliatsiia, bazalyq mólsherleme, taýarlar men qyzmetterdiń eksporty men importy, sondai-aq teńge baǵamy negiz bolady.
Munai
2025 jyldyń aqpan aiynda munai baǵasy osy jylǵa arnalǵan munai baǵasy boiynsha aldyńǵy stsenarii sharttaryna sai bir barreli 75 dollar deńgeiinde saqtaldy, al 2026 jáne 2027 jyldary bul baǵa 72 dollarǵa deiin tómendetý turǵysynda qaita qaraldy.
Jalpy ishki ósim
Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń 2025 jylǵy ósimi boiynsha boljamdar 4,7%-dan 4,9%-ǵa deiin jaqsartý turǵysynda qaita qaraldy. Al 2026 jáne 2027 jyldary JIÓ ósimi buryǵydai 4,5% deńgeiinde qalyp otyr.
Infliatsiia jáne bazalyq mólsherleme
Infliatsiia boiynsha boljamdy sarapshylar ósý turǵysynda qaita qarady. Máselen, 2025 jylǵa arnalǵan boljamdardyń medianasy 7,5%–dan 8,7%–ǵa deiin, al 2026 jyly 6,5%-dan 7%-ǵa deiin, 2027 jyly 5,6%-dan 5,8%-ǵa deiin ósedi dep kútiledi.
Infliatsiianyń joǵary boljamdary aiasynda 2025 jáne 2026 jyldarǵa arnalǵan ortasha jyldyq bazalyq mólsherleme boiynsha kútiletin boljam da artty. Bul sarapshylardyń bazalyq mólsherlemeniń joǵarylaýyn nemese onyń joǵary mánderde buryn boljanǵannan uzaǵyraq saqtalýyn bajailaitynyn kórsetedi.
Máselen, 2025 jylda ol 14,7%–dan 15,3%-ǵa deiin, 2026 jylda orta eseppen 11,8%-dan 12,7%-ǵa deiin ósedi dep kútiledi. 2027 jyly, kerisinshe 10,5%-dan 10%-ǵa deiin tómendeidi dep boljanady.
Aita ketsek, bazalyq mólsherleme – aqsha-kredit saiasatyn júrgizetin Ulttyq Banktiń negizgi quraly. Ulttyq Bank bazalyq mólsherleme deńgeiin belgilei otyryp, ortamerzimdi kezeńde baǵany turaqtandyrý úshin bankaralyq qysqamerzimdi mólsherlemeniń maqsatty mánin aiqyndaidy.
Bazalyq mólsherlemege qatysty sheshimdi AKS komiteti bekitilgen sheshim qabyldaý kestesine sáikes jylyna 8 ret qabyldaidy.
Saýalnama respondentteriniń quramyna Qazaqstan boiynsha makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterdi taldaýmen jáne boljaýmen ainalysatyn 15 uiym qatysty. Respondentterge naryqtyń kásibi qatysýshylary, ǵylymi-zertteý institýttary, halyqaralyq uiymdar, sondai-aq reitingtik agenttikter kiredi. Makroekonomikalyq saýalnama respondentteriniń quramy BCC Invest jáne Eýraziialyq turaqtandyrý jáne damý qorynyń sarapshylarymen tolyqqany da naqtylanady.
