"2025 jyly Qazaqstan úshin negativti jaǵdai munai baǵasynyń tómendeýi bolýy múmkin. Óitkeni AQSh taqtatas munaiy óndirisin ulǵaitýdy josparlap otyr, al OPEK+ aǵymdaǵy baǵany ustap qalý úshin shikizat óndirisi kólemin qysqartýǵa beiildi". Qazaqstannyń qarjygerleri qaýymdastyǵy jariialaǵan "Infliatsiia, teńge jáne munai: 2025 jylǵy negizgi makroekonomikalyq syn-tegeýirinder" atty zertteýinde osylai delinedi, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
- Al mundai jaǵdai negizgi makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterimizge (ekonomika ósimi, saýda balansy, aǵymdaǵy operatsiialar shoty, biýdjet jáne Ulttyq qor túsimderi, ulttyq valiýta baǵamy, infliatsiia) teris áser etýi múmkin, bul ekonomikany ártaraptandyrý jáne qazaqstandyqtardyń ál-aýqatyn jaqsartý jónindegi kúsh-jigerdi aitarlyqtai álsiretedi, - deidi sarapshylar.
Ekonomika ósimi 4%+ deńgeiinde saqtalady
Munai óndirisi salasyndaǵy toqyraý jáne shikizat baǵasynyń tómendeýi saldarynan aǵymdaǵy jyly ekonomikalyq ósim ótken jylǵy - 5,1%, sondai-aq nysanaly deńgei 6% kórsetkishterinen aitarlyqtai tómen bolady. Soǵan qaramastan, aǵymdaǵy jyly eldiń JIÓ-si saýda, bailanys, kólik, qurylys jáne aýyl sharýashylyǵyndaǵy ósim (6%-dan joǵary), onyń ishinde Ulttyq qordan qosymsha transfertter tartý esebinen 4%-dan (aǵymdaǵy jylǵy qańtar-qyrkúiekte 4,1%) asýy múmkin.
Alaida josparlanyp otyrǵan shikizat óndirisin ulǵaitý (97,2 mln tonnaǵa deiin), iri infraqurylymdyq jobalardy iske asyrý jáne joǵary biýdjettik shyǵyndar (2025 jyly - 33,5 trln teńge) shikizat baǵalarynyń tómendeýi, joǵary paiyzdyq mólsherlemelerdiń teris yqpalyn baiaýlatýy múmkin. Qarjy naryǵynyń sarapshylary 2025 jyly elimizdiń JIÓ kólemi 4,4%-ǵa ósedi dep kútedi.
Teńge baǵamy 2024 jyldyń aiaǵynda tómendep, 2025 jyly da qysymǵa ushyraýy múmkin
Birshama nyǵaiǵannan keiin (2023 jyldyń qorytyndysy boiynsha 1,7%-ǵa) ulttyq valiýtaǵa shaqqandaǵy 1 AQSh dollary 2024 jyldyń aiaǵynda ishki suranystyń usynystardan edáýir artýy esebinen 10%-dan astamǵa quldyraýy múmkin. 2025 jyly USD/KZT baǵamy 545,2 teńgege deiin ósýi múmkin (aǵymdaǵy mánge+6%). Teńgege qysym jasaýy múmkin myna jaǵdailar: shikizattardyń tómen baǵasy, OPEK+ mámilesin oryndaý qajettiligine bailanysty munai óndirisi kólemin qysqartý, qazaqstandyq shikizattyń (QHR jáne EO) negizgi tutynýshylarynyń ekonomikalyq ósiminiń baiaýlaýy, importtyń artýy, onyń ishinde investitsiialyq jobalardy iske asyrý saldarynan, baǵam boiynsha kútýlerdiń nasharlaýy, óńirdegi kúrdeli geosaiasi jaǵdai kórsetýi jáne investorlardyń táýekelden jalpy qashýy.
Infliatsiiamen kúres máselesi 2025 jyly da kún tártibine shyǵady
2024 jyldyń qorytyndysy boiynsha QR-daǵy infliatsiia, QR UB-nyń aǵymdaǵy jylǵa arnalǵan jańartylǵan boljamynda joǵary shek - 8-9% - ǵa jaqyn qalyptasýy múmkin (eger jeltoqsanda ailyq tutyný baǵalarynyń indeksi (TBI) 0,9%-qurasa, onda jyldyq kórsetkish 8,7% deńgeiinde qalyptasady) ekeni aitylady. Álsiregen baǵam, yntalandyrýshy biýdjettik saiasat, aqyly qyzmetterdegi reformalar, taýarlar usynysy boiynsha jekelegen ishki ekonomikalyq syn-tegeýrinder (eńbek ónimdiliginiń tómendigi, joǵary óndiristik shyǵyndar, t.b) jáne boljamdardaǵy infliatsiialyq kórsetkishterdiń joǵarylaýy TBI-diń aldaǵy 12 aida 5% nysanaly targetteýge oralýyna kedergi keltiretin bolady. Qarjy naryǵy sarapshylarynyń boljamynsha, infliatsiia 2025 jylǵy jeltoqsanda 9,5%-dy quraidy.
Aqsha-nesie qatań sharttary ary qarai da saqtalady
2024 jyldyń sońyna qarai bazalyq mólsherleme deńgeii 2024 jyldyń qańtaryndaǵy mánine qaita oraldy. Bul rette ekonomikadaǵy joǵary infliatsiialyq táýekelder eldegi qatań monetarlyq jaǵdailardy uzaǵyraq saqtalýyn talap etýi múmkin: bir jyldan keiin bazalyq mólsherleme 14,25% (-100 b.p. aǵymdaǵy mánnen) deńgeiinde qalyptasady dep boljanady. Osylaisha, ekonomikadaǵy naqty paiyzdyq mólsherlemeniń máni aǵymdaǵy 6,85%-dan 4,75%-ǵa deiin tómendeýi múmkin, bul teńgelik aktivterdiń tartymdylyǵyna teris áser etetin bolady.
Korporativtik nesieleý baiaýlaýy múmkin
Joǵary infliatsiia jáne bazalyq mólsherleme korporativtik kreditterdi berý dinamikasyna teris áser etýi múmkin jáne 2025 jyly kásipkerlerge jańa kreditterdi berýdiń jyl saiynǵy ósimi boiynsha qoiylǵan mindetterdi oryndaýdy qiyndatady.
Buǵan deiin teńge nege qaita qunsyzdana bastaǵanyn jazǵan bolatynbyz. Sarapshylar bir aidan keiin, iaǵni 2025 jyly qańtarda 1 AQSh dollarynyń baǵamy 524,1 teńge bolatynyn boljaǵan.
