"Ótken sáýirde Qazaqstan munai óndirisi boiynsha rekord ornatty: táýligine 2 million barrel. Bul – álemdik óndiristiń shamamen 2%-yna jýyq kórsetkish. Eger OPEK uiymy álemdegi óndirilgen munaidyń 40%-dan astamyn baqylaitynyn eskersek, bizdiń úlesimiz olarmen salystyrǵanda 5%-ǵa jýyqtaidy degen sóz. Alaida osy tusta úlken másele bar". Óz jazbasynda osylai másele qozǵaǵan ekonomist Almas Chýkin munaiǵa qatysty Qazaqstannyń basty túitkildi jaittaryn tarqatady, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
"Qazaqstan munai óndirisi boiynsha OPEK+ aiasynda táýligine 1 million 468 myń barrelden aspaýǵa mindettelgen. Demek, qazirgi ár táýlik boiynsha óndiris kólemi kelisimsharttaǵy kórsetkishten jarty million barrelge asyp ketken. Bul – aitarlyqtai aýytqý. Saýd Arabiiasy OPEK-tiń negizgi oiynshysy retinde óndirisin óz erkimen táýligine 2 mln barrelge deiin qysqartýǵa mindet alǵan edi. Demek, bizdiń artyq óndirgen jarty million barrelimiz Saýd Arabiiasynyń óz esebinen jasaǵan qysqartýynyń tórtten bir bóligin "jep" qoiǵandai bolyp jatyr", dep jazady Facebook-tegi paraqshasynda Chýkin myrza Qazaqstan óz mindettemesinen qalai aýytqyp jatqanyn támpishtep.
Al jaqynda OPEK+ elderi jalpy óndiris kvotasyn táýligine 130 myń barrelge kóterýdi talqylap jatqandai bolǵan, biraq Saýd Arabiiasy kútpegen jerden bul kórsetkishti birden úsh esege kóbeitýdi talap etti. Buǵan munai baǵasynyń arzandaýy, AQSh-tyń tariftik saiasatyna bailanysty naryqtaǵy turaqsyzdyq sebep bolǵan siiaqty. Baǵa óspese, tym bolmasa naryqtaǵy úlesti saqtap, osylaisha úlken kólemmen shyǵyndy jabý qajettigi týyndady.
Mamannyń aitýynsha, munaidy saqtai almaisyń, óndirdiń be, tez-tez ony ótkizý qajet. Bul – bir. Ekinshiden, onyń kólemin qysqartý da múmkin emes. Mysaly, vannadaǵy shúmekti burap, sýdy toqtatýǵa bolady. Al ken orny – ol vanna emes, tirshilik kózi. Ony jaýyp qoisańyz, parafin jáne basqa da organikalyq zattar aqpai turyp qalady da aqyry "ólip" tynady. Ken basynda sorǵysh qurylǵylar bekerden beker turǵan joq. Ony arasynda basyp-basyp, qysymdy birqalypta ustaý kerek bolady.
"Qazaqstan bolsa, OPEK+ aldyndaǵy mindettemelerin oryndaýǵa daiyn ekenin qaitalaýmen keledi. Biraq, shyn máninde, biz óndiristi qysqarta almaimyz. TShO men NCOC siiaqty alpaýyt jobalardy toqtatýǵa nemese baiaýlatýǵa múmkindik joq, sheteldik investorlarmen jasalǵan kelisimder qoldy bailap tur. Ulttyq kompaniiadan da talap ete almaimyz, jaǵdai qiyndaidy ondaida. Osy jaǵynan alǵanda, Qazaqstan "tsýgtsvang" jaǵdaiyna tap boldy: qai jaqqa qadam jasasa da utylatyn", - deidi sarapshy.
Bul ahýaldyń sońy OPEK+ kelisiminiń ydyraýyna ákelip soǵýy ábden múmkin. Eger kelisim buzylsa, Qazaqstan úshin bastapqyda eshteńe ózgermeitindei kórinýi múmkin. Munai baǵasy 15-20%-ǵa arzandasa da, óndiris kólemi 15-17%-ǵa artsa, túsetin tabys shamamen burynǵy deńgeide qalar edi. Alaida bul syrttai qaraǵanǵa ǵana.
"Is júzinde munaidan túsetin kiristiń qurylymyn jaqsylap qarasaq, ol úsh bólikten turady: taza paida (maily bóligi), óndiristi damytý men amortizatsiia shyǵyndary (san et) jáne operatsiialyq shyǵyndar (súiek-saiaqtar). Munai baǵasy tómendegen saiyn, eń aldymen, taza paida azaiady, óitkeni operatsiialyq shyǵyndar ózgerissiz qalady. Al taza paida azaisa, investitsiialyq jobalardy qarjylandyrý, nesieler men salyq tóleý, dividendter berý jaǵy qiyndaidy. Aqyry, jańa jobalardy toqtap, jumysshylar sanyn qysqartýǵa týra keledi. Qazaqstandaǵy munai tabystarynan tikelei respýblikalyq biýdjetke túsetini – tek eksporttyq kedendik baj salyǵy ǵana. Qalǵan negizgi tabys kózderi (korporativti tabys salyǵy, rentalyq emes salyqtar, arnaiy tólemder) Ulttyq qorǵa jinaqtalady da, biýdjetke jyl saiynǵy transfert túrinde ǵana beriledi. Demek, munai baǵasynyń tómendeýi aldymen Ulttyq qorǵa túsetin qarajat kólemine keri áser etedi", - deidi Chýkin.
Qazirdiń ózinde qalyptasqan 60 dollar kólemindegi munaidyń bir barreliniń baǵasy memleket qarjysyna úlken qaýip tóndirip tur.
"Sebebi, aldaǵy úsh jyldyq biýdjet Brent markaly munaidyń bir barreli 75 dollar deńgeiine sai eseptelip, josparlanǵan. Bir jylda shamamen 700 million barrel satsaq, ár barrelden 15 dollar joǵaltsaq, sonda bul jylyna kem degende 10,5 milliard dollar kiristi joǵaltý degen sóz. Onda da bul joǵaltý – salyq túrindegi taza paidanyń eń "maily" bóligi", dep naqtylaidy ol.
Eger álemdik naryqtaǵy jaǵdai ózgermese, 2-3 trillion teńge kóleminde biýdjetke tapshylyǵy oryn alýy múmkin.
"Muny jabý úshin Ulttyq qordan alatyn transfertti taǵy da arttyrýǵa májbúr bolamyz. Bul, árine, jalpy ishki ónimge de, ekonomikalyq belsendilikke de, biýdjet saiasatyna da keri áser etedi. Biz úshin qazir basty másele – munai dáýiriniń aiaqtalyp kele jatqanyn moiyndaý jáne ekonomikany tez arada ártaraptandyrý. Qazaqstan shikizatqa táýeldi ekonomika tuzaǵynan qutylýdyń jolyn dereý izdeýi tiis. Áitpese, munaimen birge ózimiz de "qurdymǵa" kete barýymyz ǵajap emes", dep sózin túiindeidi maman.
