AQSh pen Iran arasynda áskeri qaqtyǵys týyndasa, álemdik munai baǵasy joǵary yqtimaldyqpen qymbattaidy. Sebebi naryq tek saiasi málimdemelerdi emes, naqty jetkizilimniń úzilý qaýpin esepke ala bastaidy. Bul pikirdi ekonomist Baýyrjan Shýrmanov bildirdi, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Sarapshynyń aitýynsha, Iran áli de munai naryǵyndaǵy mańyzdy oiynshy bolyp qala beredi. El táýligine shamamen 3,3 mln barrel munai óndiredi, bul álemdik óndiristiń 4 paiyzyna jýyq. Alaida basty másele – eksport kólemi. Teńiz arqyly tasymaldanatyn 1–1,5 mln barrel munaidyń basym bóligi Qytaiǵa baǵyttalady. Áskeri shielenis jaǵdaiynda dál osy kólemder saqtandyrý, fraht jáne teńiz qaýipsizdigi máselelerine bailanysty birinshi bolyp naryqtan túsip qalýy múmkin.
Negizgi táýekel Ormýz buǵazymen bailanysty. Bul baǵyt arqyly táýligine shamamen 20 mln barrel munai men munai ónimderi ótedi. Bul – álemdik tutynýdyń besten bir bóligi. Buǵaz tolyq jabylmasa da, áskeri qaterdiń artýy saqtandyrý qunyn kúrt ósirip, tankerler qozǵalysyn baiaýlatýy múmkin. Nátijesinde naryqtaǵy qoljetimdi usynys qysqarady.
Shýrmanovtyń baǵalaýynsha, ótemdik tetikter shekteýli. OPEK-tiń bos óndiristik qýaty 4–4,5 mln barrel deńgeiinde, biraq olardyń negizgi bóligi dál osy Parsy shyǵanaǵy aimaǵynda ornalasqan. Bul olardy qaqtyǵystyń alǵashqy kezeńinde turaqtandyrýshy faktor retinde paidalanýdy qiyndatady.
Qosymsha faktor retinde Irannyń teńizdegi «qalqymaly» munai qorlary atalady. Olar shamamen 170 mln barrelge baǵalanady. Bul qorlar qysqa merzimdi tapshylyqty jumsartýy múmkin, biraq ol úshin logistika turaqty bolýy qajet. Áskeri jaǵdai kezinde bul kepildendirilmeidi.
«Munai naryǵy úshin qaqtyǵystyń uzaqtyǵy emes, eń aldymen jetkizilim men tranzit qaýipsizdigine qatysty alǵashqy belgiler mańyzdy. Iran eksporty men Ormýz buǵazy tóńiregindegi belgisizdik saqtalǵan saiyn, baǵalar joǵarylai beredi», – deidi sarapshy.
Onyń boljamynsha, bazalyq stsenariide naryqta qubylmalylyq artyp, munai baǵasyna geosaiasi ústeme qosylady. Al jetkizilim turaqty túrde buzylyp, logistikaǵa qaýip tónse, baǵa kúrt ósýi múmkin, óitkeni qater astynda turǵan kólemder álemdik tutynýdyń eleýli bóligine teń.
