– Taiaýda Erevannan oraldyńyz ǵoi. Ondaǵy«Evraziia aptalyǵy» forýmynda Qazaqstanǵa sor bop turǵan Eýraziialyq ekonomikalyq odaqtyń qyzmeti talqylandy. Bul odaqtan ziian kóp. Mysaly, jazdyń sońynan bastap teńge qunsyzdandy. Ony da sarapshylar Reseige qarsy baǵyttalǵan sanktsiiamen, rýbldiń jaiymen bailanystyrady. Shynynda da Qazaqstan múshe bolǵaly osy odaqtan tek shyǵyn kórip, teperishke ushyrap jatqany ras pa?
– Eýraziialyq ekonomikalyq odaqqa múshe bolýda Qazaqstan qandai paidaǵa keńelip, qandai shyǵynǵa ushyrady degendi baǵalaý úshin, eń aldymen, evraziialyq integratsiialyq jobanyń qandai maqsatta qurylǵanyn bir eske túsirip alǵan jón. Eýraziialyq ekonomikalyq odaq Kelisiminde mundaǵy basqosýdyń maqsaty aiqyn kórsetilgen. Odaqqa múshe memleketterdiń halqynyń jaqsy ómir súrýi úshin, ómir súrý sapasyn kóterý úshin ekonomikany turaqty damytýǵa jaǵdai jasaý dep!
Alaida, diplomatiia tilimen aitqanda, qazaqstandyqtardyń ómir súrý jaǵdaiyn jaqsartýǵa Eýraziialyq ekonomikalyq odaqtyń múmkindigin tolyqtai paidalaný bizge múlde múmkin bolmady. Árine, odaq týraly oi qorytý úshin úsh jyl azdyq etedi. Alaida osy odaqqa múshe bolǵan úsh jyl ishinde qazaqstandyqtardyń ómir súrý sapasy jaqsarmaq túgili, kerisinshe quldyrap ketti. Óitkeni Reseidiń ekonomikalyq qiyndyǵy biryńǵai ekonomikalyq keńistikte bir bolǵandyqtan, esh kedergisiz odaqqa múshe memleketterdiń ekonomikasynda da aina qatesiz kóshirmelenip, qaitalanyp jatty.
Mysaly, 2014 jyly jeltoqsanda Reseide qatty devalvatsiia boldy, sodan kóp keshikpei teńge de qunsyzdandy. Nege? Óitkeni rýblmen arada kóp alshaqtyq boldy. Bul baǵalarǵa áser etip, qazaqstandyq taýar óndirýshiler odan qatty zardap shekti. Taýar alýǵa qazaqstandyqtar Reseige aǵyldy. Al Eýraziialyq ekonomikalyq odaqtyń zańnamasy da, tájiribesinde de mundai jaǵdaida naryqtardy qorǵaýdyń naqty sharalary qarastyrylmaǵan.
Negizi, teoriialyq turǵyda Qazaqstanda devalvatsiia jasap qajeti de joq edi.
Ol úshin Dúniejúzilik saýda uiymynyń erejesi men EAEO kelisiminiń 29-babyna sáikes, emin-erkin saýda rejimin doǵaryp, belgili bir taýarlardyń bizdiń naryqqa qoiylýyna shekteý qoisaq bolatyn edi. Osyny negizge alyp, Qazaqstan Reseige usynys ta jasady. Biraq ony olar kózine ilmedi. Sodan soń ne isteidi? Eriksiz devalvatsiiaǵa júgindi Qazaqstan.
Atap aitqanda, 2015-2016 jyldary. Saldarynan Qazaqstannyń jan basyna shaqqandaǵy jalpy ishki óniminiń kórsetkishi 12,8 myń dollardan 7,7 myń dollarǵa bir-aq (!) tómendedi.
Ony aitasyz, sarapshylar másele kóterip, Ulttyq bank saiasatyn qazir qatty synap jatyr. Óitkeni ortalyq bank aqsha baǵamyn rýblge bailap qoiǵan. Muny Daniiar Aqyshevtiń ózi moiyndady. Nege dese, osy odaqqa músheligimizdi alǵa tartady. Onyń zardabyn qatty shegip jatyrmyz. Aryǵa barmai-aq qoialyq, osy biylǵy tamyz-qyrkúiek ailaryndaǵy jaǵdai oǵan kýá. Jańa sanktsiiaǵa bailanysty Reseidiń aqshasy sońǵy eki jyldaǵy eń tómengi shekke deiin quldyrady. Sol-aq eken teńge de „ ketti„ deisiz: 370-380 teńgege deiin bardy dollardyń baǵamy.
Rýbldiń turaqsyzdyǵy, teńgeni rýbl baǵamyna bailap qoiý Qazaqstannyń iskerlik belsendiligi men investitsiiasyna da keri áser etýde. Halyq qorqyp qaldy.
Devalvatsiia men infliatsiiadan kóz ashpai qaldyq. Saýda jasaý múmkin bolmai qaldy. Isker adamdardyń ózi abdyrap qaldy. Óitkeni baǵa qalai bop ketetinin qazir eshkim boljai almaidy. Shyǵynǵa batyp qalam ba dep qorqady kásipkerler. Teńgeniń áli qunsyzdana beretinin el ishtei sezip otyr.
Munyń bári neniń saldary dep oilaisyz?
Biz EAEO dep atalatyn biryńǵai ekonomikalyq keńistik arqyly Resei men halyqaralyq qaýymdastyq arasyndaǵy kikiljińdi óz ekonomikamyzǵa tasymaldaityn alyp kanal quryp aldyq. Endi otyrmyz, basymyzdy ustap...
– Bul odaqtaǵy investitsiia úshin básekelestik Qazaqstannyń damý sapasyn jaqsartady dep aityldy emes pe? Qalai ózi, Qazaqstan salyq jaǵynan artyqshylyǵyn, Doing Business reitingindegi joǵary pozitsiiasyn tiimdi paidalana aldy ma bul odaqta?..
- Odaq qúrylǵan kezde, rasynda, sheteldik investitsiia men kásipkerlik belsendilik úshin taza básekelestikti qalyptastyrýshy zańnama jumys isteidi delindi. Qazaqstan buǵan qýandy. Óitkeni, halqymyzdyń sany az bolǵandyqtan da kóp sheteldik investor bizge at basyn bura bermeitin.
Al eger bul odaqqa qosylsaq, onda bizdiń naryqtyń kórsetkishi 170 mln dep kórsetiletin bolǵan. Iá, bul týraly kóp aityldy.
Oǵan qosa, rasynda Qazaqstannyń odaqqa múshe memleketterden birqatar artyqshylyǵy bar: salyǵymyz tómen, jekemenshik pen investordyń quqyǵy da bizde jaqsy qorǵalady, qadaǵalaýshylar da asyra siltemeidi, qatty qatal emes.
Mine, osynyń bárin qosyp jibergende, Qazaqstanǵa shetel investitsiiasy aǵylyp, kóptep jańa kásiporyndar ashylýy tiis edi. Alaida, ázirge munyń bári bizge arman bop qalýda.
S
ebebi EAEO-daǵy seriktesterimiz ózderine óte tiimdi, tarifke sai emes kedergiler ornatyp qoidy. Úsh jyl ótse de tarifke bailanysty daýly máseleler áli de odaq talqysynyń kún tártibinen túsken emes.
Qazaqstanǵa qoiylǵan shekteýlerge bailanysty máselelerdiń kóbisi áli sheshilgen joq. Mysaly, Qazaqstannyń kásipkerleri Resei men Belarýstyń alkogol naryǵyna emin-erkin shyǵa almaidy. Bul rette qolymyzdan kelgeni - aradaǵy túsinbestikterdi talqylaý týraly kelisimge ǵana kele aldyq.
Sol sekildi Reseide eski kólikter alymyn engizý qazaqstandyq kólik óndirisiniń Resei naryǵyna shyǵýyna úlken kedergi keltirdi. Sodan soń Qazaqstan da eriksiz bul alym túrin qoldanysqa engizýge májbúr boldy.
Budan bólek MDP kitapshasy bar júkterdiń halyqaralyq tasymaly týraly kedendik konventsiia da eleýsiz qaldy. Qazir qazaqstandyq júk tasymaldaýshylar kez kelgen baqylaý beketinen 100 protsent qatań tekserýden ótkiziledi.
Taǵy bir fakti. Sanktsiiaǵa qarsy sharalarǵa bailanysty Resei territoriiasy arqyly Eýropalyq odaq pen Ýkrainanyń taýarlarynyń tasymaldanýyna qatań tyiym salyndy. Máskeý Reseidiń qarymta sanktsiialaryn Qazaqstan men Belarýs qoldai ketedi dep dámelengen.
Alaida Astana men Minski bul rette neitral pozitsiia ustanatynyn aiqyn aitty. Árine, bul Reseidiń shymbaiyna batyp ketti. Olar qarap qalmady.
2015-2016 jyldar boiyna qazaqstandyq júk kólikterdi qatań baqylaýǵa alyp, bir-birlep ábden tekserip, esterin shyǵardy. Reseilik sanktsiiaǵa ilingen taýarlardy izdegen bop. Keiin bul shielenisti jaǵdai rettelgendei boldy, biraq onyń saldary men ziiany badyraiyp kórinip qalyp jatty.
Bir jaǵynan, Rosselhoznadzor da qatty shúilikti. Ol Qazaqstannan tasymaldanatyn mal jáne ósimdik ónimderine udaiy shekteý engizip otyr. Mysaly, biyl qyrkúiekte olar 2018 jyldyń 1-qazanynan bastap Qazaqstannyń mal sharýashylyǵy ónimderine tyiym salynǵanyn málimdedi. Úkimet aiaǵynan tik turdy. Bul daýly máseleni retteýge bel sheshe kiristi. Ony sheshkendei bolǵan edi. Kóp uzamady.
Taiaýda Reseidiń qadaǵalaýshy organy EAEO men Reseidiń veterinariia-sanitarlyq talaptaryn buzdy degen jeleýmen 3 qazaqstandyq kásiporynnyń mal sharýashylyǵy ónimderin tasymalyna qatysty veterinarlyq jáne sanitarlyq baqylaýdy kúsheitti.
Qyrkúiek aiynda Resei shekarasynan Qazaqstannyń 15 tonna kartop pen 40 tonna qaýyn tiegen 3 kóligin keri qaitaryp jibergen. Sóitse bul ónimder RF-ǵa eksporttalatyn taýarlar tiziminde joq kórinedi. Osylai dedi olar bizge. Alaida Qazaqstannyń Aýylsharýashylyǵy ministri Reseidiń fitosanitarlyq jáne veterinarlyq qadaǵalaý boiynsha bul is-áreketteriniń zańsyzdyǵyn dáleldedi.
Bul jaǵdaida Qazaqstan da qarap qalǵysy kelmedi. Týra ózderiniń istegenin istedi. Sóitip kedende reseilik aýylsharýashylyǵy ónimderine degen baqylaýdy kúsheitti. Keibir reseilik kásiporynnyń taýarlarynyń bizge tasymaldanýyna tyiym saldy.
Aqyrynda Eýraziialyq ekonomikalyq komissiianyń tájiribeli ministrleriniń ózi moiyndady ǵoi. EAEO ishinde taýarlar bul birlestik qurylǵanǵa deiin áldeqaida emin-erkin tasymaldanǵanyn. Kórdińiz be?
Mine, soǵan qaramastan Resei tarapy EAEO úshin daǵdarysqa qarsy tiimdi strategiia joǵary deńgeidegi integratsiia men tutastyq bolýy tiis dep digirleýden eshjalyqpaidy. Al ózderi bolsa, soǵan basty kedergi bolýda. Muny elep otyrǵan olar joq.
– Resei ózin sanktsiiamen tópelep jatqandarǵa birge qarsy turaiyq dedi. Odan soń ózara saýda-sattyqta dollardan bas tartaiyq dedi. Aqyry EAEO-nyń biryńǵai valiýtasyn qoldanysqa engizeiik dedi. Al bul degenińiz ekonomikalyq odaqty saiasiǵa ainaldyrý emes pe? Qazaqstan bul rette ózin qalai ustaidy?..
- Ras, Qazaqstan úshin EAEO tek ekonomikalyq odaq, eshqandai saiasi integratsiialardy qamtymaidy. Bul odan ári talqylanbaityn jait. Elbasy osy aptada ǵana Qazaqstannyń pozitsiiasyn aiqyndap, nyǵyrlap aitty. Bizdiń elimiz basqa elderge qarsy turý úshin qandai da bir blokqa qatysyp, eshkimmen tize biriktirmeidi dedi. Qazaqstan kópvektorly saiasat ustanady. Ol ulttyq múddeni alǵa tartýda pragmatizmge, kúshter tepe-teńdigine, ózara paidaǵa negizdeledi.
Osy jolǵy Joldaýynda da Elbasy pragmatizm qaǵidattary boiynsha ulttyq múddeni beiimdep, ony jyljytý qajettigin basa aitty.
Bul aradaǵy pragmatizmdi bylai túsindirýge bolady:
biz ózimizdiń ulttyq múddelerimizge súienemiz, al basqa áriptes eldermen qarym-qatynasymyzda ony qatty nasihattap, ideologiiaǵa ainaldyrmaimyz. Iaǵni, bóten elge óz múddemizdi tanbaimyz.
Iá, Resei bizdiń dosymyz ári seriktes elimiz. Biraq biz basqa dostarymyz ben seriktesterimizdiń betin qaǵyp, olarmen dos bola almaimyz.
Bizdiń AQSh-ta óz múddemiz bar, eýropalyq eldermen, Qytaimen, sol sekildi Reseige qatysty óz múddemiz bar. Qazaqstannyń syrtqy saiasaty, áý bastan, osylai qurylǵan, alda da solai bola beredi. Onyń jemisine eshkim kúmán keltire qoimas. Onyń ústine Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń damýyna serpin berýshi eýropalyq jáne amerikalyq investitsiialar, munai eksporty ekenin jadymyzdan shyǵarmaýymyz kerek.
Resei ekonomikasynan, EAEO-ǵa músheligimiz, osy odaq boiynsha áriptes eldermen aradaǵy ekonomikalyq bailanystan ondai orasan zor paida joq bizge.
Tsifrlarǵa júginsek, mysaly, 2005 jyly Qazaqstanǵa tikelei aǵylǵan shetel investitsiianyń kólemi 260 mlrd dollardan asyp tústi.
Atap aitqanda, 2005-2007 jyldarǵy bizdiń ekonomikamyzǵa aqsha quiǵan iri investorlar:
Niderlandy - 78 mlrd dollar, AQSh – 31 mlrd dollar, Shveitsariia - 21 mlrd dollar, Kitai - 16 mlrd dollar, Frantsiia – 14 mlrd dollar, Ulybritaniia (13 mlrd dollar) syndy elder boldy.
Mine, osydan keiin baryp Resei turdy.
2005 jyly Resei Qazaqstanǵa 11,7 mlrd dollar investitsiia salyp, jetinshi orynda bolǵan.
Bul arada tikelei shetel investitsiiasynyń jan basyna shaqqandaǵy kórsetkishi boiynsha Qazaqstan Reseiden áldeqaida alda ekenin de basa aita ketý kerek. 4,7 ese aldamyzdan olardan.
Biz saýda-sattyq áriptestigin sóz etsek te Resei biz úshin eń basty naryq dep taǵy aita almaimyz.
Reseidiń importy qazaqstandyq importtyń jalpy kóleminiń 40 protsentin quraidy. Alaida biz úshin importtaýshy emes, taýarymyzdy ótkizetin ekporttaýshy naryq áldeqaida mańyzdy.
Al Qazaqstannyń eksportqa shyǵaratyn basty taýary – shiki munai (26,6 mlrd dollar).
Ony Italiiaǵa, Gollandiiaǵa, Frantsiiaǵa, Shveitsariiaǵa, Ispaniiaǵa tasymaldaimyz.
Odan soń bidaiymyz bar (661 mln dollar). Ony Ózbekstan, Tájikstan, Italiia, Qytai jáne Aýǵanstan elderine jóneltemiz. Mys (2,3 mlrd dollar) Qytaia, Túrkiia, BAÁ, Ulybritaniiaǵa ketedi.
Temir oramalardy (1,5 mlrd dollar) Iran, Ózbekstan, sodan soń Resei satyp alady. Onda da Reseige kóp jóneltpeimiz. Al Qazaqstan, kerisinshe Resei úshin taýaryn ótkizetin eń mańyzdy ári sapaly naryq.
Endi salyq jaiyna toqtalalyq.
Qazaqstandaǵy eń iri salyq tóleýshi kompaniia – Amerikaniki. Salyq tóleminiń kólemi men jaýapkershiligi boiynsha byltyrǵy jyly «Teńizshevroil» absoliýtti kóshbastaýshy kompaniia bop tabyldy.
Bul kompaniiadan 5 mlrd dollar salyq túrinde biýdjetke, Ulttyq qorǵa tabys túsken. Bul Qazaqstandaǵy salyq tabysynyń 20 protsentin quraityn kólem.
Sońǵy kezderi Resei naryǵy qazaqstandyq biznes úshin óziniń tartymdylyǵyn joiyp barady. Óitkeni sanktsiialardan soń Resei ekonomikasy báseńsip, ósýin doǵarǵan. Halqynda basy artyq aqsha joq. Tutynýshylyq qabileti tómen. Osy jait bizdikilerdi qatty alańdatady.
Al biz EAEO-ǵa engende, tipti basqa nárseni kútken edik qoi. Reseidiń bai, úlken ári ósimi joǵary naryǵyna bas suqqaly jatyrmyz dep qýanǵan ek. Biraq bul úmit aqtalmady.
Ekonomikalyq damý ministrliginiń dereginshe, 2018 jyldyń qortyndysy boiynsha Reseidiń jalpy ishki ósiminiń deńgeii 1,8 protsentti quramaq. Al 2019 jyly, tipti minýsqa kiredi dep boljanyp jatyr: -1,3 protsent (!).
Onyń ústine Resei qazir «importozamesheniege» kóship jatyr, iaǵni ishki naryqtaǵy shetel taýarlarynyń ornyn otandyq taýarlarmen jappaqshy. Soǵan basymdyq berip jatyr. Sáikesinshe, naryqtyń aiasy taryla túsýde.
Qazaqstannyń da EAEO elderimen aradaǵy ózara saýda-sattyq kólemi de qysqardy.
Eger statistikaǵa júginetin bolsaq, 2017 jyly Qazaqstannyń syrtqy saýda kólemi 2010 jylǵysyna qaraǵanda, iaǵni bul odaqqa Armeniia men Qyrǵyz Respýblikasynyń qosylǵanyna qaramastan 6 protsentke qysqarǵan, al eksport kólemi 12 protsentke tómendep ketken.
2011 jáne 2017 jyldar aralaǵyndaǵy Qazaqstannyń EAEO elderine eksporttaǵan mineraldy ónimder tasymalynyń 2,5 mlrd dollarǵa, avtokólik, kólik qural-jabdyqtary, saimandary tasymalynyń 115 mln dollarǵa qysqarǵanyn kórýge bolady.
Ósim tek tamaq pen aýylsharýashylyǵy shikizaty eksportynda baiqalady. Ol 369 mln dollardy quraǵan. Al Reseiden Qazaqstan, negizinen, otyn mineraldary (26,9%), avtokólik pen oǵan qajetti jabdyq-saimandar (15%), qara mettal men sodan jasalǵan buiymdar (12,3%) satyp alady. Osy jaǵynan alǵanda, qazaqstandyq kásipkerlerdiń integratsiianyń arqasynda paida tabamyz degen úmiti aqtalmady.
- Ortaq valiýta týraly aitpadyńyz ǵoi. Ásirese, bul Resei sarapshylardyń jaqsy kóretin ári jii aitatyn taqyryby...
- Biryńǵai valiýta Qazaqstan úshin jat nárse.
Bul eshqashan bolmaityn nárse, óitken jaǵdaida Qazaqstan eń qundy qundylyǵy - óz táýelsizdiginen aiyrylady.
Sondyqtan bárine eskertip, ótinish jasaimyn, bul taqyrypty qozǵamańyzdar. Ásirese, Petr Vladimirovich Svoik pen búirekten siraq shyǵaryp, boljam jasaýdy jaqsy kóretin keibir qazaqstandyq «fýtýrolog» myrzalarǵa aitamyn muny – Qoiyńyzdar!
Biryńǵai valiýta qurý týraly kez kelgen áńgimege tyiym salamyn. Munyń bári, negizi, postkeńestik keńistikti qaitadan keńestendirýdi armandaityn jekelegen sarapshy men mariginal saiasatkerlerdiń qurǵaq qiialy.
EAEO-ǵa múshe memleketterdiń eshqaisysy óziniń egemendiginen ońaishylyqpen bas tartpaidy. Eger qandai da bir saiasatker osyndai sheshim qabyldańdar dep belden basatyn bolsa, onda bul Qazaqstanda úlken narazylyq týǵyzady.
Sondyqtan osyny óte jaqsy túsinip, mundaidyń eshqashan bolmaitynyn osy forýmda nyǵyrlap aitqan Evraziialyq ekonomikalyq komissiia ministri Tatiana Valovaǵa jáne ózge de jekelegen reseilik áriptesterime alǵysymdy bildirgim keledi.
Qazir 2019 jyly EAEO-nyń ortaq elektroenergetikalyq naryǵyn qurý, al 2025 jylǵa qarai ortaq qarjy naryǵyn qurý (ortalyǵy Almaty bolady delingen), odan soń gaz, munai jáne munai ónimderi boiynsha ortaq naryq qurý týraly alǵa mindetter qoiylyp jatyr. Alaida, oilap qaraiyqshy, shynymen de qazir osyndai ortaq naryqtardy qurýǵa bizde qajettilikter bar ma? Biz oǵan daiynbyz ba ózi?
Qazirdiń ózinde biz taýar men qyzmettiń ortaq tiimdi naryǵyn qura almaýdamyz. Jańa aittym ǵoi, tarifterge bailanysty daýdy, kedendegi shekteýlerdi....
Menińshe, taraptar múddeli bolyp turǵanda ǵana ekonomikalyq múddeleri sáikes kelip jatqanda ǵana sol bir salalarda ortaq naryq qurýǵa bolady. Ol úshin memleketterdiń naryqtar boiynsha ustanymdaryn aiqyndap alý kerek. Onda da ony naqty bir otandyq kompaniianyń, naqty bir salanyń, eń bastysy, azamattardyń múddesi turǵysynda aiqyndaý qajet.
Mysaly, Resei naryǵyna qazaqstandyq aýylsharýashylyǵy taýarlaryn shyǵarmai jatyr ǵoi. Mine, solardyń artynda salalyq lobbi turýy da múmkin.
Demek, olar aýylsharýashylyǵy salasynda ortaq naryq qurýǵa qarsy.
Osy jaǵynan alǵanda, biznes sýbektileri, jańaǵy atap ótken, elektr energiiasy, qarjy, gaz, munai jáne munai ónimderi boiynsha ortaq naryq qurýǵa múddeli bolsa, ári ol múdde bizdikimen sáikes kep jatsa, onda olardy qurý kerek. Bul aradaǵy sheshim men bastamalar joǵarydan emes, kerisinshe tómennnen bastaý alýy tiis.
Shynyn aitqanda, ortaq naryq degenge eshkim de, eshqaiysy da daiyn emes. Iá, osy odaqty qurǵan kezdegi bastapqy qyzý qandylyqpen bireýler: «Integratsiianyń eń joǵary shegin igereiik, elektr energiiasy, qarjy, gaz, muneai jáne munai ónimderiniń ortaq naryǵyn quraiyq» dep aityp qalsa kerek. Men mundai joǵary deńgeidegi integratsiiaǵa áldekim daiyn degenge senbeimin. Árine, aitýǵa ońai. Biraq is júzinde júzege asyrýdy bir sátke oilasaq, munyń qazir múmkin emes ekenin ańǵarý qiyn emes.
Adamdar EAEO tiimdiligin ańǵaryp jatsa, ol odaqqa esh kúmán keltirmes edi...
Suhbattasqan,
Janar Tólendinova
