"Qazaqstanda 2022 jyldan bastap boi kóterip, sodan beri údeýmen kele jatqan infliatsiia 2025 jyly aptyǵyn basady. Sondai-aq kelesi jyly teńge qatty qunsyzdanbaidy". Analitikalyq kredittik reiting agenttigi (AKRA) sarapshylary elimizdiń 2025-2027 jyldaryna arnalǵan makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterine jasaǵan taldaýynda osyndai qorytyndy jasaidy, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Reseilik reiting agenttiginiń boljamynsha, Qazaqstan boiynsha 2025-2027 jyldarǵa arnalǵan makroekonomikalyq boljamǵa sáikes, atalǵan kezeńde JIÓ-niń naqty ósimi shamamen 3,8-4,2%-dy quraidy.
"Biyl el ekonomikasynyń ósý traektoriiasy óziniń áleýetti deńgeiinen sál tómen turaqtady (shamamen 3,8%). 2025-2027 jyldary onyń ósiminiń draiveri ónerkásip, qurylys jáne qyzmet kórsetý salalary bolady, al 2026 jyldan keiin óndirýshi salalar yntalandyrýdan góri tejeýshi faktor retinde sipattalýy múmkin. El prezidenti belgilegendei, JIÓ-niń jyl saiynǵy naqty ósiminiń 6% -y neǵurlym eleýli investitsiialardy jáne negizgi eksporttalatyn shikizattar óndirisiniń joǵary kólemin talap etedi. Alaida, bul ekonomikanyń qyzyp ketýine ákelip soqtyrýy múmkin, bul tutynýshylyq infliatsiianyń jańa ósimine qaýip tóndiredi", – deidi sarapshylar.
BAǴA JÁNE INFLIaTsIIa
AKRA aǵymdaǵy jyly aqsha-nesie saiasaty salystyrmaly túrde qatań júrgiziledi dep boljaidy. Al taýarlar men qyzmetter baǵasynyń ósimi birtindep baiaýlaýy múmkin, bul ótken jyldardaǵy infliatsiialyq kúizelisterdiń saldaryn eńserýdiń uzaq kezeńi dep eseptegen jón, sondyqtan atalǵan qubylys 2025 jyly da baiqalady.
"Kompaniialar úshin negizgi aqsha kózderi tikelei sheteldik investitsiialar men ózindik menshikti kapital bolyp qala beredi. Birinshisi syrtqy qarjylandyrýmen bailanysty sektorlar úshin (negizinen ol óndirý), ekinshisi, iaǵni negizinen ishki qarjy kózderin paidalanatyn salalar úshin ózekti bolady", delingen sholýda.
Sonymen qatar, syrtqy saýda óndirýshi sektorlardaǵy qiyndyqtarǵa bailanysty qysymǵa ushyraidy, - deidi sarapshylar. Olardyń pikirinshe, 2024 jyly tólem balansynyń aǵymdaǵy shotyna shikizat salalaryndaǵy ahýal tejeýshi sipatta áser etedi. Degenmen sarapshylar kelesi jyldan bastap óndiris kóleminiń artýy taýar eksporty pozitsiiasyn ishinara qalpyna keltiredi dep boljaidy.
"Boljamǵa sai, taýar importy da ishinara qalpyna keledi, biraq tutynys pen investitsiialyq suranystyń ortasha jiyntyq ósimi, sondai-aq salystyrmaly túrde teńgeniń nyǵaiýy bul qubylystyń aqyryndap júretinin baiqatady. Taza eksport ortasha oń mánder aimaǵynda qalyptasady, sonyń ishinde Qytaimen aradaǵy saýda bailanysynyń artýy aiasynda", – dep tolyqtyrady AKRA.
Halyqaralyq qyzmetterge keletin bolsaq, bul rette sarapshylar Qazaqstannyń ustanymdary áldeqaida tepe-teńdikte júretinin aitady. Olar 2001 jyldan 2010 jylǵa deiingi osy segmenttegi ortasha teris saldony mysalǵa alady: JIÓ-niń (–) 6,7%, al 2011 jyldan 2020 jylǵa deiin JIÓ-niń (-) 2,8% qurady jáne 2024 jyly ol (-) 1% deńgeiine jetýi múmkin.
AQShA SAIaSATY
Sarapshylar bul úrdis 2025-2027 jyldary da jalǵasyn tabady dep kútedi, oǵan kórsetiletin qyzmetter kóleminiń ulǵaiýy, ásirese kólik sektorynda jáne týrizmde, sondai-aq import ósimi de yqpal etetin bolady.
"Eldiń syrtqy shottary úshin mańyzdy faktor, ádettegidei rezident emesterge taza mándegi bastapqy tabystary boiynsha tólenetin tólemder bolady: 2022 jyldan 2023 jylǵa deiin olar jyl saiyn 51,5 mlrd dollar nemese JIÓ-niń 10-11% qurady nemese 2022-2023 jyldarǵa arnalǵan 55 mlrd dollar jiyntyq taza saýda balansyn tolyǵymen derlik japty. Bul Qazaqstan ekonomikasy buryn syrtqy aktivterge tikelei sheteldik investitsiialar arqyly qol jetkizgen qarajatty tolyq kólemde qarjylandyrýǵa jumsap otyrmaǵanyn kórsetedi. Bul úrdis 2024 jyly tólem balansynyń aǵymdaǵy shotynda teris saldonyń nege bulai qalyptasqanyn túsindire alady. Sondai-aq bul jait 2025-2027 jyldary da ózektiligin joǵaltpaidy. Ári eseptik kezeńniń sońyna qarai ol 2023 jyly JIÓ-niń (-) 3,3%- nan (–) 1,5%-ǵa deiin azaiady", - dep atap ótti reitingtik agenttiktegiler.
Osyǵan bailanysty AKRA boljamdy kezeńde ulttyq valiýtaǵa qysym jasaityn eleýli alǵysharttardy baiqamaidy. Bul rette valiýta baǵamyn túzetýge bailanysty teńgeniń shamaly arzandaý yqtimaldyǵyna ǵana jol beriledi. Onda da bul infliatsiianyń joǵary deńgeiiniń uzaǵyraq saqtalýy men teńgedegi paiyzdyq syiaqy mólsherlemesiniń tómendeýimen bailanysty.
Sondai-aq, sarapshylar qazir infliatsiialyq dinamikaǵa eń eleýli úles qosyp otyrǵan kórsetiletin qyzmetter baǵalary ekenin naqtylaidy. Olardyń aitýynsha, bul - jyldyq mánde eki tańbaly tsifrdy kórsetetin jalǵyz segment.
"2025 jyl óz tsiklindegi infliatsiianyń boi kóterýiniń sońǵy jyly bolýy múmkin (2022 jyldyń basynan bastap). AKRA 2026 jáne 2027 jyldary retteýshi organ óz maqsatyna jaqyndaidy dep sanaidy, árine eger jańa daǵdarystar aldyny orap ketpese, iaǵni syrttan "importtalǵan" nemese basqa da fiskaldyq keńeitýlerge bailanysty", – dep atap ótti sarapshylar.
Sonymen qatar, Ulttyq banktiń aqsha-kredit saiasaty 2025 jyldyń ortasyna deiin qatań kúide bolady, dep kútedi agenttiktegiler. Olardyń pikirinshe, aǵymdaǵy jyldyń qarasha aiynda retteýshi vedomstvo bazalyq syiaqy mólsherlemesin shamaly tómendetýi múmkin, múmkin 0,25-0,5 p.p. boiynsha. Odan keiingi jaǵdaida sarapshylar beitarap monetarlyq saiasat ornaitynyn boljaidy.
BOLJAMDY QAÝIPTER
AKRA memlekettik biýdjet tapshylyǵy 2026-2027 jyldary turaqtalady dep boljaidy. Al aǵymdaǵy jyly onyń kólemi shamamen 3,9-4 trln teńge nemese JIÓ-niń shamamen 2,9-3% deńgeiin qamtidy dep kútiledi.
Sonymen qatar, sarapshylar ózderiniń osy boljamdy stsenariidiń oryn alýyna kedergi bolýy yqtimal tórt negizgi táýekeldi atap kórsetti. Olardyń qatarynda shikizat óndirisiniń keńeiýi jáne eksporttyq-saýda joldarynyń kúrdelenýimen bailanysty jaǵdaidyń qiyndaýy, orta jáne uzaq merzimdi perspektivada shoǵyrlandyrýǵa baǵyttalǵan biýdjettiń ońdy-soldy shashylýy, sondai-aq keibir salalardyń qosarlas sanktsiialarǵa ushyraý yqtimaldyǵy jáne rýbldiń álsireýinen týyndaýy múmkin qiyndyqtar.
