Iran búgingi deiin álemge tasymaldanatyn munaidyń 20 paiyzy ótetin Ormýz buǵazyn jabatynyn aityp, arakidik doq kórsetip keldi. Al búgin Iran parlamenti shynymen de osyndai sheshimdi qabyldady. Al sarapshylardan bastap halyqaralyq qarjy uiymdaryna deiin bul yqtimal jaitty áldeqashan baǵalap, mundaida munaidyń bir barreli 90-nan 130 dollarǵa deiin qymbattaýy múmkin ekenin boljaǵan. Alaida otandyq ekonomist, munai salasynyń mamany Oljas Baidildinov bul rette asyǵys uiǵarym shyǵarmaýǵa shaqyrady. Óitkeni, onyń pikirinshe, Ormýz buǵazyn jabý fizikalyq ári materialdyq turǵyda múlde múmkin emes kórinedi, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Aita ketsek, Ormýz buǵazy arqyly álemde óndirilgen munaidyń shamamen 20%-y jáne suiytylǵan tabiǵi gazdyń 35%-dan astamy tasymaldanady. Bul – Saýd Arabiiasy, Irak, Kýveit, Katar, BAÁ jáne Bahrein siiaqty Parsy shyǵanaǵy elderiniń energetikalyq resýrstaryn eksporttaityn negizgi baǵyt. Ormýz buǵazymen kún saiyn shamamen 3 million barrel munai ótedi. Bul – álemdegi táýliktik munai óndirisiniń besten bir bóligine teń kólem.
"Rasynda, buǵaz kózdegenge óte qolaily nysana. Onyń eni - bar bolǵany 30-100 shaqyrym ǵana. Biraq ony qalai jabýǵa bolady? Bul bizdiń Mańǵystaýdaǵy ereýil emes, joldy jaýyp qoia salatyn. Teńizdi nemen jabasyń? Kemelermen be? Iranda ózi qansha keme bar? Qara teńizdegi qaqtyǵystan belgili, qazir kez kelgen kemeniń kózin sý ústindegi dron-qaiyqtar op-ońai qurta salady. Mina qoiyp tastaý kerek pe? Bul – qazir keńinen taraǵan nusqa. Al minany qaida, qalai qoiady? Ony kememen porttan alyp shyqqanda-aq áýeden soqqy jasaý arqyly talqandai salmai ma? Álde drondarmen aparady ma? Iá, solai jasaýǵa ábden bolady. Biraq qazirdiń ózinde buǵazda kóptegen áskeri kemeler saqadai-sai tur: kez kelgen ushqan nysandy joiatyn. Álde zymyrandardy paidalanǵan durys pa? Ol úshin dál sol sátte, naqty ýaqyt rejiminde nysanany dáldep baǵyttaityn júie qajet. Al, Iranda zymyran qoldanysynyń múmkindigi shekteýli. Ýikipediia dereginshe, Iranda Qytaidan kóshirilgen "Nur" zymyrandary bar. Biraq olardy qalai ushyrady? Bir-eki ret atar ary ketse, alaida olardy aýadan birden qaǵyp alady emes pe?" dep jazypty Baidildinov Telegram-daǵy arnasynda.
Al qalai degenmen de bul buǵaz, Iran biligi búgin sheshkendei, jabylatyn bolsa, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup jáne JPMorgan syndy halyqaralyq qarjy institýttary "qara altynnyń" baǵasy sharyqtai jóneletinin boljaidy.
Goldman Sachs sarapshylary eger geosaiasi jaǵdai burynǵy qalypty jaǵdaiǵa oralsa, Brent munaiynyń bir barreli 2025 jyldyń IV-toqsanynda, tipti 60 dollardan da tómen túsip ketýi múmkin dep sanaidy. Al, eger Iranda munai tasymalynda problemalar týyndasa, onda baǵa 90 dollardan asaǵa joǵarylaýy yqtimal.
Citigroup sarapshylary Ormýz buǵazy blokadada qalyp ketse ári munai tasymalyndaǵy úzilister arasy uzap ketse baǵa 90 dollarǵa deiin kóterilýi múmkin ekenin aitady. Al qatań stsenariilerde baǵa shyǵy 120-130 dollardy igreýi yqtimal.
"Óndiris kóleminiń ósimi jáne Qytai tarapynan suranystyń tómendeýi aqyrynda baǵanyń sabasyna túsirý rólin atqarýy múmkin. Iaǵni, bul rette baǵa ósimi qysqa merzimdi sipatqa ie bolatyn siiaqty", - deidi Citigroup sarapshylary.
JPMorgan sarapshylary Ormýz buǵazy arqyly ótetin arna jabylsa nemese Taiaý Shyǵysta iri soǵys oty tutansa munaidyń bir barreliniń quny 130 dollarǵa deiin kóterilýi múmkin dep eskertedi.
Aita ketsek, 22 maýsymǵa qaraǵan túni AQSh-tyń áýe kúshteri Irannyń Fordo, Natanz jáne Isfahan syndy iadrolyq nysandaryna dóp soqqy berdi. Osylaisha 13 maýsymnan beri óz jalǵastyǵyn taýyp jatqan Iran men Izrail qaqtyǵysy jańa reńke ie boldy. AQSh-tyń tikelei áskeri qatysy geosaiasi shielenisti odan saiyn ýshyqtyra túsýde. Investorlardyń basym bóligi baǵaly qaǵazdardan aqshasyn alyp, altynǵa salýǵa jappai kóshti...
