Álemdik BAQ pen sarapshylar Saýd Arabiiasynyń munai óndirisin ulǵaityp, álemdik naryqtaǵy baǵany tómendetýi múmkin ekenin aityp, dabyra bolýda. Buǵan Donald Tramptyń Saýd Arabiiasynyń koroline jasaǵan úndeýi túrtki. Tramp baǵany quldyratý úshin óndiristi arttyrýdy surap otyr. Onyń oiynsha, munai baǵasynyń arzandaýy Reseidiń biýdjetine túsetin túsimdi azaityp, Ýkrainadaǵy áskeri qaqtyǵysty doǵarýǵa yqpal etýi múmkin. Rasynda, bul qanshalyqty yqtimal jaǵdai? Mundaida Qazaqstanǵa qaitpek kerek? Bul týraly munai salasynyń sarapshy maman Oljas Baidildinov oi tolǵaidy, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Ol munai baǵasyn tómendetý arqyly Resei armiiasynyń is-qimyly áli de jalǵasyp jatqan Ýkrainadaǵy soǵysty toqtatýǵa bolady degenge kúmánmen qaraidy. Sóitip tómende qysqa-nusqa óz boljamy men taldaýlaryn usynady:
- OPEK+ kelisimi aiasynda birqatar elder táýligine óndiriletin munai kólemin 2 millionnan astam barrelge shektep otyr. Bul kólem Qazaqstannyń bir jyl boiy óndiretin munaiyna para-par. Degenmen barlyq memleket birdei óndirisin shektep otyrǵan joq: mysaly, Qazaqstan óz mindettemelerin tolyq oryndai bermeitini aitylyp qalyp júr.
- Al Saýd Arabiiasy - óndiris kólemin aitarlyqtai qysqartqan naryqtaǵy basty oiynshy. Sońǵy málimetterge qaraǵanda, koroldik jalpy táýligine 1,5 millionnan astam barrel munaidy naryqqa shyǵarmai, shektep otyr.
- Buǵan qosa, OPEK+ ishindegi taǵy bir mańyzdy el – Birikken Arab Ámirlikteri (BAÁ) – kelisimniń keibir tustarymen kelispei otyrǵany belgili. Olar 2025 jyly munai óndirisi kólemin táýligine 3,5 mln barrelge deiin jetkizýge qaýqarly, al 2027 jylǵa qarai bul kórsetkishti 5 mln barrelge arttyrý úshin investitsiia salyp ta jatyr. Salystyra qarastyrsaq, bul – Qazaqstan óndiretin munaidan úsh ese, al "QazMunaiGazdyń" óndirisinen 11-12 ese kóp kólem.
- Qazirgi tańda Saýd Arabiiasy shamamen táýligine 9 mln barrel munai óndiredi. Sarapshylardyń esebinshe, eger olar burynǵy «OPEK-ke deiingi» deńgeige oralsa, tipti óndiristi odan asyryp 12 mln barrelge jetkizýge tyryssa, naryq táýligine 2-3 mln barrel qosymsha munaimen tolyǵady.
- Degenmen mundai qadam baǵany birden quldyratady, biraq, árine 40 dollarǵa deiin emes. Óitkeni naryqtaǵy suranys pen basqa óndirýshilerdiń áreketi de baǵanyń qalyptasýynda mańyzdy ról atqarady.
- Munaidyń arzandaýy Reseidiń tabysyna keri áser etýi múmkin. Joqtyń ornyn toltyrý úshin Máskeý rýbli baǵamyn tómendetýge májbúr bolady. Keibir sarapshylar jyl sońyna qarai rýblge shaqqanda 1 AQSh dollary 120-150 rýbl bolýy múmkin ekenin boljaidy.
- Mundaida Qazaqstan da zardap shegeri sózsiz. Birinshiden, munai baǵasynyń tómendeýi biýdjet kirisin qysqartady. Ekinshiden, bas seriktes el – Reseidegi devalvatsiia teńgege de qysym jasaidy.
Degenmen bul aradaǵy basty másele – "saýdiialyqtar óndiristi ulǵaita alady ma, shynymen de bul olarǵa kerek pe?". Bul tek eki jaǵdaida múmkin:
- AQSh koroldikke Taiaý Shyǵystaǵy jáne ózge aimaqtardaǵy basty múddelerin qorǵaýda aýqymdy kepildikter berýi yqtimal.
- Vashington qandai da bir eldiń munaiy naryqqa jetpeitindei etýge kepildik berýi múmkin, mundaida álemdik naryqta usynys azaiyp, bolashaqta baǵany joǵary ustap turýǵa turaqty jaǵdai týar edi. Bul Resei nemese Irannyń, sol sekildi, tipti Qazaqstannyń munaiy da bolýy yqtimal.
Áitpese Saýd Arabiiasynyń óndiristi óz erkimen arttyrýǵa, óz basym, basqa logikalyq negiz kórip turǵanym joq.
"Eger táýligine 9 mln barrel óndirip, ony 80 dollardan satqanda kúnine 720 mln dollar túsim túsedi, al 12 mln barrel bolsa, onda baǵa kem degende 60 dollar bolýy qajet, áitpese óndiris shyǵynyna bailanysty taza paida azaiady. Al munaidyń bir barreli 60 dollar bolsa, ol Reseige qatty qysym jasaidy deý qisynǵa kelmeidi. Ol úshin Resei kelissóz ústeliniń basyna bara qoimaidy. Qazirdiń ózinde batys elderi Resei munaiyna 60 dollardan baǵalyq shekteý qoiyp tastaǵan. Al Saýda Arabiiasy jáne BAÁ-niń munai óndirisin ulǵaitýynsyz baǵany tómendetý múmkin be? Joq... Resei biýdjetine aitarlyqtai salmaq túsirý úshin 40 dollar baǵany 2-3 jyl boiy ustap turý kerek bolady (onda da ony rýbl devalvatsiiasy arqyly óteý yqtimaldylyǵy joǵary)", - deidi sarapshy.
Túiin: búginderi Taiaý Shyǵystyń munaily monarhiiasy AQSh pen Eýropanyń munai kompaniialarymen qolaisyz kelisimderdi qaita qarap shyqqan 1970-jyldardan beri ózderiniń tabiǵi resýrsqa qatysty saiasatyn tabysty júrgizip keledi. Sodan beri olar óz munaiy men naryqtyq tetikteriniń tolyqqandy qojasyna ainalyp, jahandyq munai baǵasyn baqylaý arqyly Batystyń ózine yqpal etetin deńgeige jetken. Ári eksporty arqyly mol qarjy taýyp, ekonomikalyq qýatyn nyǵaitty. Sonyń nátijesinde "Teńizshevroil" syndy halyqaralyq konsortsiýmdar óndiristi ulǵaita ma, joq pa , ony Taiaý Shyǵystaǵy óndirýshiler emes, naryqtyń ózi sheshetin jaǵdai týdy. Sondyqtan bul arada bárin, iaǵni baǵanyń qandai bolatynyn, qansha munai óndiretinin Saýd Arabiiasy men BAÁ ózi sheshedi.
Buǵan deiin saitymyzda osy taqyrypqa tiek "Munai baǵasyn túsirý,Pýtinmen kezdesý, Qytaidy qolqalaý: Tramp Davos forýmynda ne aitty" degen maqala jariialanǵan bolatyn.
