Aqpan aiy bastalǵaly nyǵaiýmen bolǵan teńge kesheden bastap qaita bosańsi bastaidy. 1 AQSh dollarynyń quny kezinde psihologiialyq shekke balaǵan 500 teńgeden de tómendep, infliatsiia ekpinin báseńsitýshi róldi qolǵa alǵan sekildi áser bergendei bolyp edi. Joq, bul úmit aqtalmaityn sekildi. Jalpy, valiýtalar baǵamy alda qalai oiysýy múmkin? Teńgeniń aqpan aiyndaǵy nyǵaiýy ýaqytsha kórinis pe álde ony uzaqmerzimdi perspektivasyn boljaýǵa bolady ma? Bul saýaldarǵa Atlas Capital sarapshysy Boris Boikonyń Forbes.kz da jariialanǵan saraptamasynda jaýap beriledi, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Munai baǵasy: qysqa merzimdi turaqtylyq
Qańtardyń ortasynan bastap AQSh-ta óndiris kóleminiń artýy jáne OPEK+-qa amerikalyq bilik tarapynan qysymnyń kúsheiýine bailanysty munai baǵasy tómendep keledi. Degenmen AQSh-tyń óndiristi edel-jedel arttyrýǵa múmkindigi shekteýli. EIA boljamyna sáikes, qazirgi táýligine óndirilip jatqan 13,3 million barrel 2025 jyly ortasha eseppen 13,6 million barrelge deiin ósedi, bul nebári 2%-dyq ósimdi quraidy. OPEK+ naýryz aiynyń sońyna deiin óndiris kólemine qatysty shekteýlerdi saqtap, odan keiin ony birtindep arttyrýdy josparlap otyr.
2025 jyldyń birinshi jartysynda Brent markaly munaidyń bir barreliniń quny 70-75 dollar aralyǵynda saqtalady dep boljaimyz (12 aqpandaǵy baǵa — 76 dollar). Óndiristiń aitarlyqtai artýy qorlardyń ósýine ákelip, 2026 jylǵa qarai bir barrel munai baǵasy 60 dollarǵa deiin tómendeýine túrtki bolýy múmkin. Biraq qysqa merzimde munai tarapynan teńgeniń baǵamyna eleýli áser baiqalmaidy dep boljanýda.
Rýbl: Ýkrainadaǵy jaǵdai beibit sheshiledi degen úmit
2024 jyldyń basynda rýbl nyǵaiyp otyrdy. Buǵan reseilik eksporttaýshylardyń valiýtalyq túsimdi 2024 jyldyń qarashasynda engizilgen sanktsiialardan keiin esep aiyrysý qurylymyna beiimdeýi yqpal etti. Jeltoqsan aiynda da Reseidiń iri eksporttaýshylary valiýtany aiyrbastaý kólemin edáýir arttyrdy.
Rýbldiń ósimine Resei men Ýkraina arasyndaǵy qaqtyǵystyń beibit jolmen rettelý yqtimaldylyǵy týraly boljamdar da qosymsha túrtki boldy. Degenmen, qazirgi ýaqytta AQSh pen Resei arasyndaǵy kelissózderdiń naqty kúnderi belgilenbegen, sodai-aq bitim sharttary da taraptarmen tolyqtai kelisilmegen.
Eger soǵys is-qimylyn toqtatý týraly kelisim jasalyp, sanktsiia qysymy bosańsi bastasa,investitsiialar aǵyny, kapitaldyń Reseige qaita oralýy jáne Resei Ortalyq bankiniń tartymdy paiyzdyq mólsherlemeleri arqyly rýbl aitarlyqtai nyǵaiýy múmkin. Biraq Qazaqstanda bul faktorlar sonshalyqty mańyzdy ról atqarmaityndyqtan, teńgeniń rýblmen úilese nyǵaiýy kútilmeidi. Al eger kelissózder merzimi sozylyp ketse nemese sátsiz aiaqtalsa, rýbl men teńge de qatar álsireýi yqtimal.
Teńgege salyq aptasynyń áseri
Qysqa merzimdegi basty faktor — Qazaqstandaǵy aldaǵy salyq aptasy. Elimizde 25 aqpanǵa deiin kompaniialar paidaly qazbalardy paidalanǵany úshin tólemderdi qosa alǵanda, 10-nan astam salyq túrin tóleýi kerek. Sońǵy 10 jyldaǵy derekter salyq aptasyna deiin eki apta buryn teńge orta eseppen 2,4%-ǵa nyǵaiatynyn kórsetedi. Eger bul úrdis qaitalansa, 25 aqpanǵa qarai teńge baǵamy dollarǵa shaqqanda 485-490 teńgege deiin nyǵaiýy múmkin.
Qorytyndy: Teńgeniń qazirgi nyǵaiý jaǵdaiy qanshaǵa deiin sozylýy múmkin?
Bizdiń oiymyzsha, teńgeniń dollarǵa shaqqandaǵy qazirgi baǵamy eldegi ekonomikalyq jaǵdaiǵa qaraǵanda joǵary baǵalanyp otyr. Onyń nyǵaiýy, negizinen, salyq aptasy, biýdjet transfertteri jáne áleýmettik shilenistiń báseńdeýi syndy tehnikalyq faktorlarmen bailanysty.
Uzaq merzimdi perspektivada teńge baǵamynyń qazirgi deńgeide saqtalý yqtimaldyǵy tómen. Ýkrainadaǵy qaqtyǵysty retteý perspektivalary týraly sońǵy derekterdi eskere otyryp, biz teńgeniń dollarǵa shaqqandaǵy baǵamyna áser etetin negizgi faktorlardyń dinamikasy men aýqymy boiynsha erekshelenetin úsh stsenariidi óz nazarlaryńyzǵa usynamyz.
USD/KZT baǵamy boiynsha boljam:
Bazalyq stsenarii
Bul rette Resei men Ýkraina arasynda 2025 jyldyń III-toqsanynda bitimgershilikke qol jetkizilip, onyń aimaqtyń qarjy naryqtaryna ortasha turaqtandyrý áseri bolady. OPEK+ sáýir aiynan bastap táýligine 130 myń barrelge deiin munai óndirisin birtindep arttyrady, sondai-aq AQSh-ta jyl sońyna qarai munai óndirisi táýligine 13,7 mln barrelge deiin jetedi. Mundai jaǵdaida teńge eki kezeńde nyǵaiýy múmkin: aldymen aqpanda, sodan keiin tamyz-qyrkúiek ailarynda, shamamen 1 AQSh dollary 485-490 teńge bolady. Biraq 2025 jyldyń sońyna qarai munai naryǵynda usynystyń artýyna bailanysty baǵam birtindep 520 teńgege oralýy yqtimal.
Optimistik stsenarii
Bul rette qolaily oqiǵalar kórinis tabady. Mundaida Resei men Ýkraina arasyndaǵy bitim 2025 jyldyń sáýirinde bolyp, aimaqtaǵy investitsiialyq belsendilik artady. OPEK+ II-toqsannyń sońyna deiin óndiriske qoiylǵan shekteýlerdi uzartady, bul munai baǵasynyń turaqtylyǵyn qoldaidy. Mundai jaǵdaida teńge 2025 jyldyń ekinshi toqsanynda aitarlyqtai nyǵaiyp, 1 AQSh dollary 465-470 teńge bolýy múmkin. Degenmen, jyl sońyna qarai, tipti oń faktorlar saqtalsa da, Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń ishki jaǵdailary men munai baǵasynyń tómendeýine bailanysty dollarǵa shaqqandaǵy ulttyq valiýta baǵamy 510-515 teńgege deiin álsireidi dep kútiledi.
Negativti stsenarii
Bul rette 2025 jyly bitimge qol jetkizilmeidi jáne qaqtyǵys ýshyǵa túsýi yqtimal. Mundai jaǵdaida aimaqtaǵy investitsiialyq aýan nasharlap, Reseige jasalatyn sanktsiialyq qysym valiýta naryqtaryna áser etýin jalǵastyrady. Oǵan qosa, OPEK+ sáýirden bastap táýligine munai óndirisin 140 myń barrelge deiin arttyryp, sondai-aq AQSh-ta da óndiris táýligine 13,9 mln barrelge deiin ulǵaiýda teńge baǵamyna teris áser etýi yqtimal. Saldarynan aqpandaǵy qysqa merzimdi nyǵaiýdan keiin ulttyq valiýta baǵamy birtindep álsirep, 2025 jyldyń sońyna qarai 1 AQSh dollarynyń quny 570 teńgege deiin jetýi múmkin.
"Osy jaǵynan alǵanda, qazirgi teńgeniń nyǵaiýy kóbinese tehnikalyq jáne qysqa merzimdi sipatqa ie. Uzaq merzimdi baǵam dinamikasy geosaiasi jaǵdaiǵa, OPEK+ sheshimderine jáne energiia resýrsataryna degen jahandyq suranysqa bailanysty bolmaq", dep óz oiyn qorytyndylaidy sarapshy.
Buǵan deiin, 19 aqpanda "Búgin KASE-degi saýda-sattyqta dollar baǵamy qaitadan kúrt kóterilip shyǵa keldi" degen material jariialaǵan bolatyn.
