7 naýryzda Ulttyq Bank qazirgi ýaqytta 15,25% deńgeidi qamtityn bazalyq mólsherlemege qatysty sheshim qabyldaidy. Aqpan aiynda infliatsiianyń kúrt údeý yqtimaldyǵyn eskere otyryp, monetarlyq retteýshi organ stavkany 25-50 b.p-ǵa kóteredi degen boljam bar. Degenmen, Halyk Finance taldaý ortalyǵy bazalyq mólsherlemeniń aǵymdaǵy deńgeiin saqtaý oryndy bolady dep sanaidy. Onyń sebebin Dalanews.kz usynǵan osy materialdan oqyp-bile otyryńyzdar.
Halyk Finance taldaý ortalyǵynyń sarapshysy Sanjar Qaldarov qazirgi ekonomikadaǵy suranystyń baiaýlaýy, negizgi kapitaldaǵy investitsiialardyń álsiz ósimi jáne ósimge kedergi keltirýshi naqty qaýip-qater kórinis taýyp otyrǵanda bazalyq mólsherlemeni kóterý orynsyz bolatynyn bajailaidy.
Aita ketsek, 2025 jyldyń aqpanynda infliatsiia shalt údep, qańtar aiymen salystyrǵanda jylyna 8,9%-dan 9,4%-ǵa ósti. Aqpan aiynyń qorytyndysy boiynsha infliatsiia jyldyq mánde joǵary qalyptasty.
"Buryn da aitqanymyzdai, bizdiń oiymyzsha, infliatsiianyń bulaisha ósýiniń eki negizgi sebebi bar. Birinshisi - teńge baǵamynyń álsireýinen keiingi qordalanǵan áser jáne onyń importtyq infliatsiia arnasy arqyly taraýy. 2024 jyly jeltoqsanda 1 AQSh dollarynyń quny 519,65 teńge bolsa, al 2025 jyly qańtarda USD/KZT baǵamynyń ortasha máni 524,64 teńgeni qurady. Valiýtalyq aýytqýlar men olardyń baǵaǵa áseri arasyndaǵy ýaqyt araqashyqtyǵyn eskere otyryp, aqpan aiynda teńgeniń álsireýiniń infliatsiiaǵa áseri aiqyn boldy. Ekinshisi - jyl basynda TKSh-nyń jekelegen retteletin qyzmetterine (elektr, sýmen jabdyqtaý jáne t.b.) tarifterdiń josparly ósimi. Bul dástúrli túrde bir rettik infliatsiialyq qysym sipatyna ie jáne biylǵy jyly odan ári kóterilmeýi de yqtimal. Sonymen qatar, maýsymdyq faktorlar infliatsiianyń jedeldeýine de áser etken bolýy múmkin", - deidi ol.
Jyl basynda saýda-satyq ósimi baiaýlady (bir jylda, qańtarda 3,9%), negizgi kapitalǵa salynǵan investitsiialar da álsiz ósim kórsetti – jylyna 0,2%, bul halyqtyń tabysynyń tómen deńgeiimen qatar júrip, ekonomikadaǵy suranystyń tizgin tartqanyn baiqatady. Osy faktorlardyń barlyǵy infliatsiiaǵa tejeýshi áser berdi.
Sonymen qatar, Ulttyq Bank málimetteri boiynsha, jyl basynda halyqtyń infliatsiialyq kútýleri aitarlyqtai jaqsardy. Qańtar aiynda bir jyldan keiin kútiletin ortasha baǵam boiynsha infliatsiia 2024 jylǵy jeltoqsandaǵy 14,6%-ben salystyrǵanda 12,4% ǵa deiin tómendedi. Sońǵy 12 aida qabyldanǵan infliatsiianyń ortasha baǵamy da 11,3% deiin tómendedi (2024 jylǵy jeltoqsanda 13,2%). Respondentter jaýabynda aldaǵy 12 aidaǵy baǵalar ósimi shamaly bolady dep kútetinder basym. Infliatsiialyq kútýler boiynsha aqpan aiyndaǵy kórsetkishter áli jariialanǵan joq, biraq naqty infliatsiianyń ósimin eskere otyryp osy kezeńdegi derekter keibiri kóńil-kúidiń nasharlaýy turǵysynda sipattalatynyn ańǵarýǵa bolady.
Aqpan aiynda valiýta naryǵynda salystyrmaly túrde turaqtylyq baiqaldy, ásirese aldyńǵy ailarmen salystyrǵanda. Sheteldik valiýtaǵa degen suranys jyldyń basynda maýsymdyq sipatta qalypty boldy. Bul Ulttyq qordan bólinetin transfertterdiń joǵary deńgeii, shaǵylystyrý saiasatynyń ary qarai júzege asýy, BJZQ úshin shetel valiýtasyn satyp alý úrdisiniń kúshiniń joiylýy, sondai-aq kvazimemlekettik kompaniialardyń valiýtalyq túsiminiń 50%-yn satýyn mindetteý teńge baǵamynyń 3,7%-ǵa nyǵaiýyna, iaǵni 1 AQSh dollarynyń 499,09 teńgege deiin arzandaýyna ákelip soqty.
"Aqpan aiynda infliatsiianyń kúrt ósýin eskere otyryp, aldaǵy Ulttyq Banktiń Aqsha-nesie saiasaty komitetiniń otyrysynda bazalyq mólsherleme deńgeii 25-50 b.p-ǵa kóterýi múmkin. Óz kezegimzde ishki suranys qarqynynyń tómendeýi jaǵdaiynda aqsha-kredit saiasatyn qosymsha qatańdatýdyń qajettiligi joq dep esepteimiz. Bizdiń baǵalaýymyz boiynsha, jyl sońyndaǵy infliatsiia 9% deńgeiinde qalyptasady, osy stsenarii boiynsha jáne ekonomikany damytýdyń qolda bar parametrlerine sai jyl sońyna deiin stavkany 15,25% deńgeiinde saqtaý neǵurlym teńgerimdi sheshim bolar edi", - deidi sarapshy.
Buǵan deiin saitymyzda "2025 jyldyń aiaǵynda elimizde infliatsiia 10%-dy quraidy dep kútiledi - UEM" degen maqala jariialanǵan bolatyn. Sondai-aq 2025 jyly 3 naýryzda jariialanǵan "Sarapshylar biyl bazalyq mólsherleme kórsetkishi taǵy ósedi dep boljaidy - Ulttyq Bank" degen materialdy da bizdiń saittan oqi alasyzdar.
