QR Ulttyq bankiniń sarapshylar qaýymdastyǵy arasynda júrgizgen kezekti makroekonomikalyq saýalnamanyń nátijesi jariialandy. Oǵan sáikes,sarapshylar 2025 jyly kútiletin infliatsiia kólemin 7,5%-ǵa deiin kóterdi, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Brent markaly munaidyń baǵasy, Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń ósimi, infliatsiia, bazalyq mólsherleme, taýarlar men qyzmetterdiń eksporty jáne importy, sondai-aq teńge baǵamy – saýalnamanyń negizgi parametri retinde alynǵanyn basa atap ótelik.
Ulttyq banktiń málimetinshe, 2025 jyldyń qańtar aiynda jyl boiyna arnalǵan munai baǵasy boiynsha stsenarii sharttary jańartylǵan. Medianalyq kútýlerge sáikes, 2025 jyly Brent markaly munaidyń bir barreli 75,0 AQSh dollar deńgeiinde qalyptasady (buǵan deiin – 76,5 AQSh dollar). 2026 jyly "qara altynnyń" bir barreline arnalǵan boljam 74,0 AQSh dollar deńgeiinde saqtalǵan. 2027 jyly kútiletin baǵa da 75,0 AQSh dollar deńgeiinde qalyptasty.
Qazaqstannyń 2025 jáne 2026 jyldarǵa arnalǵan ekonomikalyq ósý boljamdary ózgerissiz qalyp, tiisinshe 4,7% jáne 4,5% qurady. 2027 jyly sarapshylardyń boljamy boiynsha ekonomikalyq ósim qarqyny 4,5% deńgeiinde saqtalady.
"Sarapshylar infliatsiia boljamdaryn 2025 jylǵa — 6,9%-dan 7,5%-ǵa deiin, al 2026 jylǵa — 6,0%-dan 6,5%-ǵa deiin kóterdi. 2027 jyly infliatsiia 5,6% deńgeiinde bolady dep baǵalanady. Infliatsiiaǵa qatysty baǵamdardyń ózgerýine sáikes bazalyq mólsherleme boiynsha boljamdar da qaita qaraldy. 2025 jylǵa arnalǵan boljamdardyń medianalyq mánderi 12,5%-dan 14,7%-ǵa deiin, 2026 jyly — 10,3%-dan 11,8%-ǵa deiin túzetildi. 2027 jyly bazalyq mólsherleme 10,5% deńgeiinde bolady dep boljanady", delingen Ulttyq bank habarlamasynda.
Aqsha baǵamyna keletin bolsaq, sarapshylar pikirinshe, 2025 jyldyń qorytyndysy boiynsha elimizde ulttyq valiýtaǵa shaqqandaǵy 1 AQSh dollarynyń boljamdy quny 486,9 teńgeden 514,5 teńgege, 2026 jyly 498,3 teńgeden 530 teńgege, 2027 jyly 550 teńgege deiin ósti.
Saýalnamaǵa Qazaqstan boiynsha makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterdi taldaýmen jáne boljaýmen ainalysatyn 12 uiym qatysty. Respondentterdiń qataryna naryqtyń kásibi qatysýshylary, zertteý institýttary, halyqaralyq uiymdar men reitingtik agenttikter kiredi.
Makroekonomikalyq saýalnamaǵa Ulttyq bank boljamdary kirmeitinin atap ótken jón. Onda naryqtaǵy kásibi qatysýshylardyń ishki jáne álemdik naryqtardaǵy ahýaldyń damýy jaiynda táýelsiz pikirlerine, baǵalaýlaryna jáne kútýlerine sholý jasalǵan.
Buǵan deiin saitymyzda "2025 jyly ifliatsiia ótken jyldyń sońyndaǵydai taǵy qarqyn alýy múmkin be" degen maqala jariialanǵan.Halyk Finance analitikalyq ortalyǵynyń basshysy Mádina Qabjalialova bul zertteýinde de 2025 jyly infliatsiialyq kútilim 7,5%-dy quraidy dep boljaidy.
