QR Ulttyq bankiniń sarapshylar qaýymdastyǵy arasynda júrgizgen kezekti makroekonomikalyq saýalnamasynyń nátijeleri jariialandy. Oǵan sáikes, teńge baǵamy, infliatsiia, tipti bazalyq syiaqy mólsherlemesi boiynsha kútiletin boljamdar kóńil kónshitpeidi, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
2025 jylǵa arnalǵan bazalyq mólsherlemeniń boljamdary sarapshylardyń infliatsiialyq kútýlerine sáikes, 2025 jyly 12,0%-dan 12,5%-ǵa deiin ózgerip otyr. 2026 jylǵa arnalǵan baǵalaýlar 10,1%-dan 10,3%-ǵa deiin túzetilip, 2024 jylǵa boljamdardyń medianalyq mánderi qazirgi - 14,6% deńgeiinde saqtalady.
Ulttyq valiýtanyń 1 AQSh dollaryna shaqqandaǵy ortasha boljamdy baǵamy 2024 jyly - 464-ten 466,5 teńge, 2025 jyly 484-ten 486,9 teńge jáne 2026 jyly 494,3 teńgeden 498,3 teńge bolyp qaita túzetildi.
Sarapshylar 2025 jylǵa infliatsiia boljamdaryn 6,7%-dan 6,9%-ǵa túzetti, 2024 jyly 8,4% jáne 2026 jyly 6,0% deńgeiinde qaldyryp, boljam pessimistik sipatqa ie boldy.
Biyl qarasha aiynda 2025 jáne 2026 jyldarǵa arnalǵan munai baǵasy boiynsha stsenarii sharttary jańartylǵan. Medianalyq kútýlerge sáikes, 2025 jyly Brent markaly munaidyń bir barreliniń baǵasy 76,5 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde qalyptasady (buǵan deiin – 75,0 AQSh dollary). 2026 jylǵa qarai boljam boiynsha bul baǵa 74 dollarǵa deiin tómendetilgen. 2024 jylǵa kútýler 80,4 AQSh dollar deńgeiinde qalyptasty.
Qazaqstannyń JIÓ-niń ósimi boiynsha 2024 jylǵa arnalǵan boljamdary 4%-dan 4,2%-ǵa deiin ósý jaǵyna qaita qaralypty. Respondentterdiń 2025 jylǵa arnalǵan kútýleri 5%-dan 4,7%-ǵa deiin tómendetildi. 2026 jylǵa ekonomikanyń ósýi boiynsha boljam 4,5% deńgeiinde saqtalǵan.
"Brent markaly munaidyń baǵasy, Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń ósimi, infliatsiia, bazalyq mólsherleme, taýarlar men qyzmetterdiń eksporty jáne importy, sondai-aq ulttyq valiýta baǵamynyń máni – saýalnamanyń negizgi parametrleri boldy. Saýalnamaǵa Qazaqstan boiynsha makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterdi taldaýmen jáne boljaýmen ainalysatyn 13 uiym qatysty. Respondentterdiń qataryna naryqtyń kásibi qatysýshylary, zertteý institýttary, halyqaralyq uiymdar, sondai-aq reitingtik agenttikter kiredi", delingen QR Ulttyq bank habarlamasynda.
