"Infliatsiia qazaqty jońǵardan artyq jylatty desem artyq aitpaimyn. 2020 jylǵy pandemiiadan beri qymbatshylyq kádimgidei ata jaýymyzǵa ainalyp, bes jyl boiy atysyp kelemiz. Prezident te qolyna myltyq alýǵa májbúr. Joldaýda Memleket basshysy ekonomikamyzdyń jetistigin joqqa shyǵaryp, halyq tabysyn jep jatqan joǵary infliatsiia týraly ashyq jáne ashyna aitty". Osylai degen qarjy salasynyń mamany Aibar Oljaev bizdiń eń álsiz tusymyz - infliatsiia máselesine egjei-tegjei toqtalyp, ómirden birqatar mysaldar keltirdi, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Onyń aitýynsha, ekonomikada tórt negizgi parametrdiń úsheýinde biz jaqsy kele jatsaq, tórtinshi parametr - infliatsiiada súrinip jatyrmyz.
"Men Almatyda turamyn. Kúnde túski asty nómiri 12 qalalyq emhananyń ashanasynda ishemin. Palaý, vinegret pen karkade alǵanda 1820 teńge tóleitinmin. Al ótken aptada ol 1920 teńgege qymbattai saldy. Bizdiń tilimizshe bul bir aptada palaý men vinegret infliatsiiasy 5,5 paiyzdy kórsetti dep oqylady", - deidi ol.
Osy qymbatshylyq neden shyqty jáne ony toqtatý múmkin be?
Qazaqstan jerde jeke turǵan jalǵyz memleket emes. Ainalamyzda biz siiaqty basqa da elder bar. Sondyqtan aldymen maman tek qana jalǵyz bizde ǵana qymbattap jatyr ma, osyny anyqtap alý kerektigin aitady. Jalpy, janymyzdaǵy elder men bizdiń ekonomikalyq jaǵdaiymyz qalai, aiyrmashylyqtary bar ma? Qymbatshylyqtyń túp-tórkinin túsindirý úshin bizge bul jaǵdaimen tanysý báribir kerek bolady.
"Ár eldiń minýs pliýstaryn saralap otyratyn BofA agenttiginiń ótken aptadaǵy esebine sáikes, Qazaqstan Eýraziia keńistiginde jyldam ósip jatqan ekonomikalardyń ondyǵyna endi. Jalpy ishki ónimniń ósimi 5,7% deńgeiinde baǵalanýda. Salystyrý úshin: Chehiia – 39-orynda (1,9%), Polsha – 23-orynda (3,3%), Ózbekstan – 9-orynda (5,9%). Bul birinshi faktor – ósim. Ekinshi faktor – fiskaldy jaǵdai. Biz ótkende sóz etken biýdjet tapshylyǵy jalpy ishki ónimniń 2,7 paiyzyn quraidy. Ol boiynsha biz 16-shy orynda turmyz. Mysaly Polshada defitsit - 6,2%, Rýmyniiada - 8,5%. Úshinshi faktor – memlekettik qaryz. Memlekettik qaryz deńgeii boiynsha Qazaqstan 2-shi orynda. Bizde qaryz jalpy ishki ónimniń nebári 20,4%-yn quraidy. Birinshi orynda memlekettik qaryzy tipti az Kýveit qana tur. Qalǵan elderdiń ishki jalpy ónimge shaqqandaǵy qaryz deńgeii Qazaqstannan anaǵurlym nashar. Tórtinshi faktor - infliatsiia. Bul Qazaqstannyń eń álsiz tusy. BofA Qazaqstandaǵy infliatsiiany 10,4% dese de, osy aidaǵy qymbatshylyq kórsetkishi 12 paiyzdan asyp ketti. Qymbatshylyq boiynsha biz 37-shi oryndamyz. Mysaly, Ázirbaijanda infliatsiia 5,7%, Armeniiada 3,2%, Parsy shyǵanaǵy elderinde tipti 1–2% ǵana. Besinshi faktor - syrtqy balans. Ázirge aǵymdaǵy shot tapshylyǵy jalpy ishki ónimniń 3,4%-yn quraǵan. Bul boiynsha biz 27-shi oryndamyz. Iaǵni, bizge kirip jatqan kapitalǵa qaraǵanda, Qazaqstannan shyǵyp jatqan kapital kóp. Bul teńgege jaman áser etedi", - deidi Aibar Oljaev.
Eýraziialyq aimaq kózimen alǵanda, Qazaqstan qaryzy az, ekonomikasy ósip jatqan, biraq infliatsiiasy toqtamai turǵan el bolyp kórinedi. Maman basqa elderdi beker saralap aitpaǵanyn, qymbatshylyq búkil Eýraziianyń problemasy ma, álde bul Qazaqstannyń ishki bir fenomeni me, sony anyqtaý úshin qarastyrǵanyn aitady.
"Kaspidiń arǵy jaǵyndaǵy Ázirbaijanda qymbatshylyq bizden eki ese az, al Armeniiada úsh ese az. Ózimizdiń jaqyn kórshilerdi alatyn bolsaq, Ózbekstandaǵy qymbatshylyq bizben birdei, al Qyrǵyzstan men Tájikstanda bizden eki ese az. Soltústiktegi Reseide qazir infliatsiia 8,3 paiyz. Bul bizden kishkene azyraq. Tamyz aiynyń qorytyndysy boiynsha Qazaqstandaǵy jyldyq infliatsiia 12,2 paiyzǵa deiin ósip otyr. Bul byltyrǵy tamyzdan 0,6 paiyz deńgeiinde joǵary. Tipti, tamyzda qymbatshylyq onyń aldyndaǵy maýsym-shilde ailarynan da joǵary bolyp artyp ketken. Halyqfinans, basqa da sarapshylardyń zertteýinshe tamyz aiyndaǵy ailyq infliatsiianyń ósýi eń aldymen aqyly qyzmetter sektoryndaǵy baǵanyń jedeldeýimen bailanysty boldy. Bul jerde ósim qarqyny shildedegi 0,5% deńgeiimen salystyrǵanda 1,4% jetti. Buǵan deiin sarapshylar tarifterdiń ósimi jyl sońyna deiin baiaýlaidy dep boljaǵan edi, alaida tamyzda turǵyn úi qyzmetteri, sý, elektr energiiasy, gaz jáne ózge de otyn túrleri boiynsha baǵalar shildedegi 0,5%-dan 2,9%-ǵa deiin kóterildi. Bul aqpan aiynan bergi eń joǵary ailyq ósim boldy, ol kezde kórsetkish 3% bolǵan edi", dep naqtylaidy maman.
Jyldyq mánde aqyly qyzmetter boiynsha baǵa deńgeii shildedegi 14,9%-dan tamyzda 15,3%-ǵa deiin ósti. Bul ótken jyldyń sáikes kezeńindegi kórsetkishten edáýir joǵary. Eń joǵary ósim qarqyny sýyq sýǵa (95,4%) jáne gazǵa (27,7%) tiesili boldy. Úkimettiń kommýnaldyq qyzmet tarifteriniń ósýin shekteý týraly sheshimine qaramastan, turǵyn úi qyzmetteriniń baǵasy aitarlyqtai ósti. Sonyń nátijesinde olardyń jyldyq infliatsiiaǵa qosqan úlesi shildedegi 1,77 deńgeiinen tamyzda 1,96-ǵa deiin ulǵaidy.
"Bul aqyly qyzmet, ásirese kommýnaldy qyzmettegi tarifterdiń ósýi. Biraq bul bir jaǵy ǵana. Ekinshi bizge soqqy tamaq jaǵynan keldi. 2025 jylǵy tamyzda azyq-túlik infliatsiiasynyń jyldyq máni 11,7% bolyp otyr. Bul joǵary kórsetkish. Qymbatshylyq kádimgidei bar. Azyq-túlik komponentiniń jyldyq infliatsiiaǵa qosqan úlesi 4,85%-ǵa deiin ósip, ótken jylǵy kórsetkishten eki eseden artyq boldy. Baǵanyń ósýine eń kóp úles qosqan – et pen et ónimderi toby (1,9%). Et baǵasy jyldyq mánde 16,2%-ǵa kóterildi, bul kórshi elderdiń naryqtarynda qazaqstandyq etke suranystyń joǵary bolýymen bailanysty. Maýsymdyq jemis-jidek pen kókónistiń túsimine qaramastan, osy segmenttegi baǵa ósimi 13,5% qurady. Budan bólek, mailar men toń mailar baǵasynyń aitarlyqtai qymbattaýy tirkeldi (+20,5%). Oǵan joǵary eksporttyq suranys, shikizat pen óndiris shyǵyndarynyń artýy sebep boldy", degen maman úshinshi soqqy janarmaidan kelgenin de naqtylaidy.
2025 jyldyń basynda Qazaqstanda benzin men dizel otynyna memlekettik baǵa retteýi resmi túrde joiyldy. Jyl basynda sol kezde AI-92 markaly benzinniń litri 203 teńge turǵan. Búginde sol markanyń bir litri 228 teńge bolyp otyr. Úkimet baǵanyń bar bolǵany litrine 5 teńgege ǵana qymbattaitynyn boljaǵan edi. Alaida baǵa litrine 25 teńgege ósti.
"Sonymen, naqtylanyp alaiyq. Biyl Qazaqstandaǵy qymbatshylyq úsh qazyqtan turady. Birinshisi tarifter, ekinshisi tamaq, úshinshisi benzin. Al kelesi jyly qymbatshylyqtyń tórtinshi qazyǵy paida bolady. Ol bárine jappai engiziletin qosymsha qun salyǵy. Meniń osynyń barlyǵyn aityp otyrǵanym, bul saldary ǵana. Endi naqty sebepterin talqylaiyq. Nege bizde kún saiyn, jyl saiyn, ai saiyn baǵa qymbattai beredi? Qazaqstan 2014 jyldan beri qymbatshylyqpen ózine belgili ádispen ǵana kúresti. Al ol baiaǵy keńesten qalǵan ákimshilik-ámirshildik ádis edi. Jańaǵy saýdagerdi shaqyryp alyp, "sen baǵany ósirme" dep buiryq berý. Nemese ákimniń telearnany shaqyryp alyp, ótirik bazar aralaýy. Biraq naryq zamanynda mundai baǵyt múlde jumys istemeidi. Durys emes. Oǵan qarsy jaýap retinde saýdagerler qoldan jasalǵan defitsit týǵyzady da, taýarlaryn ózine kerek baǵada astyrtyn sata beredi. Biraq endi olar bolashaqtaǵy taǵdyrynan qorqyp, ózderiniń táýekelderin de oilap, az ýaqyttyń ishinde barynsha tez paida tabýǵa tyrysyp, taýar men qyzmetti múmkindiginshe qymbattatady. Sebebi, erteńge degen senim joǵalady. Bizde týra sondai jaǵdai oryn aldy. 10 jyldan beri osyndai rejimde keldik. Memleket munyń durys emestigin biyl ǵana túsinip, mysaly qoldan defitsit jasap kele jatqan janarmai satqyshtardy qadaǵalaýdy qoidy. Olar qazir benzindi qymbattatady. Al halyq, ásirese taksister jaýap retinde erteń elektromobilderge ótedi, sosyn suranys azaiyp, báseke kóbeiip, benzin baǵasy naryq jaǵdaiynda óz qalpyna kelýi tiis", - deidi Aibar Oljaev.
Al tarifter nege qazir qymbattaýda?
"2018 jyly biz úlken qatelik jiberdik. Oǵan úkimet te, tabiǵi monopolister de kináli. Ol jyldary bizdiń barlyq kommýnaldy júielerimiz, elektr generatsiiasy, jylytý qazandyqtary, onyń qubyrlary, jerasty kommýnikatsiialar, barlyǵy tozyp turǵan edi. Sol kezde durys bastama kóterilip, "tarif investitsiiaǵa" jobasy qolǵa alyndy. Iaǵni tarifter kóterilýi tiis, biraq sodan túsken aqshaǵa tabiǵi monopolister barlyq injenerlik júieni, qurylǵylardy jańalaýy tiis edi. Biraq ishki mehanizm durys bolmai, tabiǵi monopolister túsken aqshany modernizatsiiaǵa emes ózderine ailyqqa, bonýsqa jarata bastady. 2018 jyly Bas prokýratýra osyny anyqtap, jańaǵy jobany jaýyp tastady da, tarifti ósirýge tiym saldy. Biraq qurylǵylardy, qubyrlardy jańalaý problemasy eshqaida ketken joq qoi. Sol sebepti, ózi eskirip, tesileiin dep turǵan qubyr taǵy alty jyl ábden shydap, 2023 jyldan bastap barlyǵy jaryla bastady. 2025 jyly biz osy jobaǵa qaityp kelýge májbúrmiz. Tarifterdi ósirý arqyly ǵana júielerdi, qubyrlardy jańalai alamyz. Basqa aqsha joq. Biraq endi monopolister ailyqqa, bonýsqa urlai almaidy. Endi modernizatsiiany kredit alyp jasaidy. Al tariften túsken aqsha sol kreditti jabýǵa tikelei jiberilip otyrylady", - deidi maman.
Baǵdarlamaǵa sáikes tarifter kezeń-kezeńimen artyp otyrady, al 2026 jylǵa qarai jalpy ósim 30%-ǵa jetedi dep kútilýde. 2025 jyldyń jazy boiynsha kommýnaldyq qyzmet tarifteriniń ortasha jyldyq ósimi shamamen 16%-dy qurady. Onyń ishinde sýyq sý 97%-ǵa, jylytý 19,2 paiyzǵa, gaz 15,5 paiyzǵa, elektr energiiasy 11,3 paiyzǵa, turǵyn úidi kútip-ustaý 11,9 paiyzǵa qymbattady. Úkimet jańa tarifterdi birtindep engizýdi josparlap otyr. Eń aýyry kelesi jyly keledi. Keler jyly tarifter 20–30%-ǵa kóterilýi tiis.
"Osydan 10 jyl buryn biz bul máseleni sheship tastai almadyq. Sondyqtan endi bizge ne dym joq, ne sál qymbat degen eki variant qana beriletin bolady. Sý múlde joq, biraq eshteńe tólemeisiz. Nemese sý bar, biraq ol keshegiden qymbat. Siz qai variantty tańdaisyz? Árine sý bar, biraq sál qymbat degen variantqa amalsyz kónesiz. Eger biz qazir tarifti qymbattatyp, sodan túsken aqshaǵa barlyǵyn aýystyryp, jańalap almasaq, erteń sý da, jaryq ta bolmaidy".
Onyń aitýynsha, qymbatshylyqtyń úshinshi qazyǵy – azyq-túlik.
"Munda eki qubylysty aitar edim. Illiýziiany qoiý kerek. Qazaqstan ózin tolyqtai azyq-túlikpen qamtamasyz etpeidi. Áitpese bir jylda 4 milliard dollarǵa shetelden azyq-túlik importtamaityn edik. Sol 4 milliard dollar importty tamaqtyń teń jartysy, iaǵni 2 milliard dollardyń asy Reseiden keledi. Rýbldiń kýrsy teńgege shaqqanda kóterilgen saiyn, bul bir, Reseidiń óziniń 8-9 paiyzdyq infliatsiiasyn qosyńyz, bul eki, sonda jyl saiyn importtyq taǵamnyń teń jartysy 15-16 paiyzǵa qymbattaýda. Al Reseiden basqa elderden keletin tamaq importyna teńgeniń dollarǵa jyl basynan beri 2 paiyzǵa qunsyzdanýy men dollardyń óziniń 4 paiyzdyq infliatsiiasyn qosyńyz. Shamamen 6 paiyzǵa qymbattaý tirkei alamyz. Ekinshi qubylys. Et pen daqyldardyń eksporty. Qazaqstan azyq-túlikti importtap qana qoimaidy. Qazir biz agrarly eksportty memleketpiz. Ásirese et máselesine kelgende qymbatshylyqtyń negizgi sebebi – bizdiń fermerler úshin et pen maldy ishki naryqqa emes, eksportqa shyǵaryp satý anaǵurlym tiimdi jáne paidaly bolyp otyr. 12 ai boiy eńbek etip, malyn ósirip, terin tókken shopanǵa «shetelge qymbatqa satpa, ishki naryqqa arzan sat» dep qalai aita alamyz? Qazirdiń ózinde memleket tiri buqalardy syrtqa eksporttaýǵa tiym salyp otyr. Et baǵasyn qoldan ustap turý úshin. Al ol buqalardyń steikke arnalǵan túrin ósiretin, elitalyq buqa ósirýshilerge aýyr tiiýde. Ony ishki naryqqa soiyp satsa, eshkim onyń steik retindegi joǵarǵy markasyna qaramaidy, kádimgi et retinde alaiyn dep tur", degen maman bul másele sheshimin de alǵa tartady.
Qazaqstandaǵy qymbatshylyqty toqtatý múmkin be?
Tarifter boiynsha múmkin emes. Kommýnaldy jelilerdi tolyq jańalap almaiynsha 5-6 jyl shydaý kerek. Biraq shynymen de, tarifterden túsken aqshanyń maqsatty jumsalyp jatqanyn mikroskoppen qadaǵalap turý kerek. Benzin boiynsha naryq óz ornyna qoiady. Defitsitti azaitý úshin BYD siiaqty Qytaidyń arzan kólikterin kóptep poshlinasyz kirgizip, taksi, iandeks barlyǵyn osy elektromobilderge aýystyryp tastaý kerek. Al azyq-túlik boiynsha. Óndiris ashyp, tamaqtyń bárin ózimiz óndire berý kerekpiz.
Memleket basshysy Qasym-Jomart Toqaev ShOS sammitinde Qazaqstan úshin Qytaidyń barlyq investitsiialyq qorlaryn ashyp keldi. 15 milliard dollarǵa naqty investitsiialyq kontrakttar jasaldy. Osyny paidalanyp, elimizdiń aýyl sharýashylyǵyn jańa satyǵa kóterip alýymyz kerek. Endigi investitsiiany jańa energetika men aýyl-sharýashylyǵyna jumsai bersek, biz eki jyldan keiin qymbatshylyqty toqtatamyz.
"Ekonomikanyń tóresi – minez-qulyq ekonomikasy. 2017 jyly Richard Taler osy minez-qulyq ekonomikasyn zerttegeni úshin Nobel syilyǵyn aldy. Qurmetti oqyrmandar! Bizdiń barlyǵymyz ómir boiy qymbatshylyqty kórgennen keiin, ylǵi qymbatshylyq bolatynyna, teńgeniń quldyrai beretinine DNK deńgeiinde ábden úirenip alǵanbyz. Bul qoǵamdyq shartty reflekske ainaldy. Al imperikalyq zertteýler mynany dáleldep otyr: eshqandai ekonomikalyq fýndamentaldy sebep bolmasa da, eger búkil qoǵamnyń, ekonomikalyq agentterdiń infliatsiia boiynsha boljamy men kútýleri joǵary bolsa, infliatsiia óz-ózimen paida bolady eken. Ony men morkovcha salatyn satatyn káris apa týraly mysalmen keltire ketsem. Bazarda salat satatyn kórshi apamyz 30 jyl boiy saýda jasady. Biyl qaitys boldy. Ol kisi bastaǵan 90 jyldary, árine qymbatshylyq zor boldy, arenda sharyqtap qymbattady, sábiz qymbattai berdi, reketirler mazany aldy. Sondyqtan apa jyl saiyn salatty 50 paiyzǵa qymbattatyp keldi. Jáne soǵan úirenip qaldy. Biraq sońǵy 5 jylda shikizat retindegi sábizdiń de baǵasy, arenda da ary ketse jylyna 5 paiyzǵa kóterilip otyrdy. Biraq apanyń ádeti qalyp qaldy da, ol sońǵy 5 jylda eshqandai fýndamentaldy negizsiz óz ónimin artyq 45 paiyzǵa qymbattata berdi. Ol apaǵa úirenip qalǵan klientteri de qansha qymbat bolsa da salatty satyp alyp júre berdi. Osylai, joq jerden belgili bir bazarda morkovcha salatynyń negizsiz infliatsiiasy paida boldy. Qymbatshylyqtyń fýndamentaldy ekonomikalyq negizi bar jáne ekonomika túsindire almaityn emotsionaldy psihologiialyq negizi bar. Qazaqstanda ol 50 de 50 dep oilaimyn. Iaǵni, qymbatshylyqtyń jartysy bizdiń basymyzda, al ekinshi jartysy shyn máninde qymbattap jatqan et pen benzinde", dep sózin túiindeidi Aibar Oljaev.
