Goldman Sachs munai baǵasynyń tómendeýine bailanysty bizdiń óńirdiń makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterine qatysty boljamdy qaita qarap shyqty. Jańa boljamǵa sáikes, Brent makarly munaidyń bir barreli 2025 jyly 62 dollar, 2026 jyly 55 dollar bolýy múmkin, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Eń bastysy, boljamdaǵy oń qubylys AQSh ekonomikasynda retsessiia bolmaityny jáne OPEK+ elderi munai óndirisi kólemin shektep bolsyn, ósirýi bolyp tabylady.
Qazaqstanǵa qatysty boljam:
- JIÓ ósimi 2025 jyly: +5.2% (2024 jylǵy +4.8%-dan keiin), al odan keiin ekonomikanyń ósý qarqyny baiaýlap, 2026 jyly +4.1%, 2027 jyly 4.3% bolýy yqtimal.
- Infliatsiia: 2024 jylǵy 8.7%-ben salystyrǵanda 2025 jyly 9.7% quraidy. Infliatsiia ósimi odan keiingi jyldary tejele bastaidy, iaǵni 2026 jyly 7.3%, 2027 jyly 5.9%-ǵa deiin.
- Bazalyq mólsherleme qazirgi 15.25%-dan 2025 jyldyń sońyna deiin 17.00%-ǵa ósýi múmkin. Al odan keiingi jyldary tek tómendeý tirkeledi dep boljanady: 2026 jyly - 15.00%, 2027 jyly - 11.00%, 2028 jyly - 9.00%. Bul syrtqy syni-tegeýirinder aiasynda infliatsiiany aýyzdyqtaý amaldaryn tanytatyny da naqtylanady.
"Tutastai alǵanda, Qazaqstan munai baǵasynyń tómendeýi túrindegi syrtqy qysymnyń bir bóligin ishki suranyspen jáne fiskaldyq ikemdilikpen óteitin bolady. Bul rette Aqsha-nesie saiasatyn qatańdatý infliatsiiany basqarýda Ulttyq Bank súienetin negizgi quraly bolyp qala beredi. Al Qazaqstannyń ózi CEEMEA-nyń ishindegi eń jyldam damyp kele jatqan ekonomikalardyń biri bolyp qala beredi. Bizdiń aimaqta GS kóbinese Úirek eti ekenin túsiný kerek, biraq stavka boiynsha kútý naryq", delingen amerikalyq iri investitsiialyq bank boljamynda.
Buǵan deiin Eýraziialyq Turaqtandyrý jáne damý qorynyń makroekonomikalyq boljamdaryn jariialaǵan bolatynbyz. Oǵan sáikes, Qazaqstanda infliatsiia údei túskenimen, ekonomika turaqty bolyp tabylady. Sondai-aq qarjy salasynyń sarapshysy Arman Beisembaev munai baǵasy jyl sońyna deiin tómen kúide qala beretin bolsa, jaqyn prespektivadaǵy 1 AQSh dolarynyń quny 530 teńge, al jyl sońynda 580 teńgeni quraýy múmkin ekenin boljaǵan. Ol munai baǵasy tómendese, Qazaqstanda AQSh dollarynyń baǵamy ósetinin, bul qalypty zańdylyq ekenin naqtylaǵan.
