2026 jyly munai baǵasy tómendeýi múmkin. Sebebi naryqqa qysym kúsheiip keledi. Iri munai óndirýshi elder munaidy burynǵydan da kóp shyǵara bastady, arzan venesýelalyq munai naryqqa qaita keldi, al AQSh qor naryǵynda táýekel kúsheiip tur. Tarihta mundai jaǵdailar kóbine qarjy daǵdarysyna ulasyp, munai baǵasynyń quldyraýyna ákelgen. Eger osy teris stsenarii júzege assa, bul Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna qalai áser etedi? Bul suraqqa Qazaq Expert Club sarapshysy, qarjyger Saida Tileýlinova jaýap berdi, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Sarapshynyń aitýynsha, Qazaqstan eksporty jylyna shamamen 75–80 mlrd dollar bolsa, sonyń 50–55%-y munaiǵa tiesili. Demek, munai sektory elge jyl saiyn 35–40 mlrd dollar kóleminde tabys ákeledi. Al munai baǵasy orta eseppen 10%-ǵa tómendese, eksporttyq túsim jylyna shamamen 3–4 mlrd dollarǵa qysqarady.
“Bul saýda profitsitine, aǵymdaǵy shotqa jáne ishki naryqtaǵy valiýta usynysyna keri áser etedi. Sonyń saldarynan teńgege qysym kúsheiedi”, - deidi ol.
Sarapshynyń baǵalaýynsha, munai barreli 60 dollar shamasynda bolsa, teńge salystyrmaly túrde turaqty, biraq álsireýi múmkin. Baǵa 50 dollarǵa tússe, júieli qysym bastalady. Al 45 dollardan tómendese, qatań makroekonomikalyq sharalar qajet bolady.
Degenmen Qazaqstanda belgili birqaýipsizdik jastyǵy” bar. Halyqaralyq rezervter men Ulttyq qor aktivteri el ekonomikasyn qorǵaýǵa múmkindik beredi.
“Qazirgi tańda syrtqy aktivterdiń jalpy kólemi 80 mlrd dollardan asady, onyń ishinde Ulttyq qor qarajaty men Ulttyq banktiń shamamen 45 mlrd dollar altyn-valiýta rezervi bar. Bul kórsetkish importty 7 aidan astam ýaqyt qarjylandyrýǵa jetedi, iaǵni halyqaralyq standarttar boiynsha jetkilikti deńgei sanalady”, - dedi ol.
Soǵan qaramastan, sarapshy artyq úmitke boi aldyrmaýǵa shaqyrdy. Eger munai baǵasy ýaqytsha emes, uzaq merzimge jáne aitarlyqtai tómendese, mysaly, 80 dollardan 60 dollarǵa tússe, eldiń valiýtalyq túsimi ondaǵan paiyzǵa qysqarady. Mundai jaǵdaida aǵymdaǵy shot nasharlap, biýdjetke qysym kúsheiedi. Turaqtylyqty saqtaý úshin rezervterdi paidalaný nemese bazalyq mólsherlemeni kóterý qajet bolýy múmkin, al bul ekonomikanyń baiaýlaýyna ákeledi.
Teris boljam qanshalyqty shynaiy?
Sarapshynyń aitýynsha, qoǵamdyq keńistikte AQSh qor naryǵynyń “qyzyp ketýi” týraly pikirler aitylyp júr. Tarihta mundai deńgeiler 2000 jylǵy dotkom daǵdarysy men 2008 jylǵy jahandyq qarjy daǵdarysynyń aldynda baiqalǵan. Alaida qazirgi jaǵdai 2008 jylmen tolyq sáikes kelmeidi: bank júiesine qoiylatyn talaptar kúsheigen, qaryz qurylymy ózgergen, ortalyq bankterdiń róli artqan. Sondyqtan tereń daǵdarys yqtimaldyǵy bar bolǵanymen, aýqymdy “apat” negizgi stsenarii emes.
Venesýelalyq munaiǵa kelsek, onyń óndirisi infraqurylymdyq shekteýlerge bailanysty shekteýli. Al munai baǵasyna áldeqaida mańyzdy áser etetin faktorlar álemdik óndiristiń shamamen 40%-yn baqylaityn OPEK+ saiasaty jáne jahandyq ekonomikanyń baiaýlaýy. Bul faktorlar munai baǵasynyń aitarlyqtai tómendeýine ákelýi múmkin.
