Qazaqstan Ulttyq Banki sarapshylar qaýymdastyǵy arasynda júrgizilgen kezekti makroekonomikalyq saýalnamanyń nátijesin jariialady. Saýalnama 2025 jyly 7-13 tamyz aralyǵynda naryqtyń kásibi qatysýshylary, zertteý institýttary, halyqaralyq uiymdar, sondai-aq reitingtik agenttikter sipatyndaǵy 13 uiym arasynda júrgizildi, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Caýalnamanyń negizgi parametrleri: Brent markaly munai baǵasy, JIÓ, infliatsiia, bazalyq mólsherleme, taýarlar men qyzmetterdiń eksporty jáne importy, sondai-aq teńge baǵamy.
Ekonomikadaǵy ósim men munai baǵasy
Saýalnamaǵa qatysýshy sarapshylar barlyq boljamdyq kezeńde munai baǵasyna qatysty stsenarii boiynsha kútiletin ahýaldy jaqsartý turǵysynda qaita qarady.
- 2025 jylǵa Brent markaly munaidyń medianalyq baǵasy 1 barrel úshin 68,9-dan 69,5 AQSh dollaryna deiin kóterildi.
- 2026 jáne 2027 jyldary da baǵalar bir barrel úshin 69,5 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde turaqtanady dep kútiledi (burynǵy boljam 2025 jyly 69,0 jáne 2026-2027 jyldary 68,5 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde bolǵan).
Qazaqstannyń ekonomikalyq ósý qarqyny boiynsha boljamdar 2025 jylǵa 5,1%-dan 5,2%-ǵa deiin, 2026 jylǵa 4,6%-dan 4,7%-ǵa deiin joǵary qarai qaita qaraldy. 2027 jylǵa ekonomikalyq ósim 4,4% deńgeiinde bolady dep kútiledi.
Infliatsiia jáne bazalyq mólsherleme
Saýalnamaǵa qatysýshylardyń 2025–2026 jyldarǵa arnalǵan infliatsiialyq kútýleri joǵary baǵytqa qarai yǵysa tústi.
- 2025 jyly infliatsiia 11,3% deńgeiinde (buryn – 11,0%),
- 2026 jyly 9,5% (buryn — 9,0%) bolady dep boljanady.
- 2027 jyly infliatsiialyq qysymnyń azaiýyna bailanysty boljam 7,0%-dan 6,5%-ǵa deiin tómendetildi.
Bazalyq mólsherleme boiynsha medianalyq mánder 2025 jyldyń sońyna deiin 16,5% deńgeiinde saqtalady. 2026 jylǵa bul kórsetkish 14,0%-dan 14,3%-ǵa deiin qaita qaraldy. 2027 jyly infliatsiialyq qysymnyń báseńdeýine bailanysty mólsherleme 11,8%-dan 11,3%-ǵa deiin tómendeidi dep kútiledi.
Valiýta naryǵy
Atap aitqanda, valiýta naryǵyndaǵy qubylmalylyq boljamdy baǵam boiynsha kútiletin aýan deńgeiin taǵy da joǵaryǵa yǵystyrdy.
- 2025 jylǵy boljamnyń medianalyq máni boiynsha 1 AQSh dollary 515,1 teńgeden 522,8 teńgege deiin, 2026 jyly 538 teńgeden 541,5 teńgege deiin artty.
- 2027 jyly kútiletin 1 AQSh dollarynyń baǵamy 562,5 teńgege deiin kóterildi (buryn – 555,8 teńge).
Buǵan deiin saitymyzda "Jeke investorlar yntasynyń joiylýy ekonomikadaǵy turaqty kedergilerdi kórsetedi - sarapshy" degen maqala jariialanǵan bolatyn.
