QR Ulttyq Bank sarapshylar qaýymdastyǵy arasynda júrgizilgen kezekti makroekonomikalyq saýalnamanyń nátijesi jariialandy. Onda sarapshylar Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń ósimine qatysty boljamdy nasharlata otyryp, qaita qarastyrǵan. 2025 jylǵy boljamdy kórsetkish 4,9%-dan 4,7%-ǵa, al 2027 jylǵysy 4,5%-dan 4,3%-ǵa tómendetilgen, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Saýalnamaǵa Brent markaly munaidyń baǵasy, JIÓ, infliatsiia, bazalyq mólsherleme, taýarlar men qyzmetterdiń eksporty jáne importy, sondai-aq teńge baǵamy saýalnamanyń negizgi ólshememderi retinde qarastyryldy.
Munai jáne JIÓ
Brent markaly munaidyń 2025 jáne 2026 jyldarǵa arnalǵan baǵasy boiynsha boljamdar 1 barrel úshin tiisinshe 75,0 jáne 72,0 AQSh dollar deńgeiinde aldyńǵy bajailanǵan kúiinde qalyp otyr. 2027 jylda bir barrel quny 72,5 AQSh dollarǵa deiin sál joǵaryǵa qarai birshama ózgerdi.
2025 jáne 2027 jyldardaǵy Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyń ósimine qatysty boljam kórsetkishteri tómendetildi. 2025 jylǵa arnalǵan boljamda kórsetkish 4,9%-ten 4,7%-ke, al 2027 jyly 4,5%-ten 4,3%-ke deiin tómendetile otyryp, qaita qaraldy. 2026 jyly kútiletin boljam 4,5% deńgeiinde saqtaldy.
Infliatsiia men bazalyq mólsherleme
Infliatsiia boiynsha boljamdar barlyq boljamdyq kezeńde tómendetile otyryp, nasharlaǵan. 2025 jylǵa arnalǵan respondentterdiń medianalyq baǵalaýy 8,7%-ten 10,6%-ke, 2026 jyly 7,0%-ten 9,0%-ke, al 2027 jyly 5,8%-ten 6,1%-ke deiin kóterildi.
"Infliatsiiaǵa qatysty boljam ózgergendikten, sarapshylardyń 2025-2027 jyldarǵa arnalǵan bazalyq mólsherleme boiynsha kútýleri de joǵary deńgeide qalyptasyp otyr. Endi bazalyq mólsherlemeniń baǵalaýy burynǵydai jyldyq ortasha mánmen emes, jyl sońyndaǵy deńgeimen usynylatynyn atap ótken jón. 2025 jyldyń sońyna arnalǵan boljamdardyń medianalyq máni – 15,9%, 2026 jylǵa – 14,3%, al 2027 jylǵa – 11,5%", - deidi Ulttyq Bank.
Saýalnamaǵa Qazaqstan boiynsha makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterdi taldaýmen jáne boljaýmen ainalysatyn 16 uiym qatysty. Respondentterdiń qataryna naryqtyń kásibi qatysýshylary, zertteý institýttary, halyqaralyq uiymdar men reitingtik agenttikter kiretinin eske sala ketelik.
Buǵan deiin Bank of America elimizdiń qarjy naryǵyna qatysty boljamyn jariialaǵan bolatyn.
