Halyk Finance analitikalyq ortalyǵy 3 aqpanda Ulttyq banktiń valiýta naryǵy boiynsha 2025 jyldyń qańtaryna arnalǵan málimdemesine qatysty óz pikirin usyndy, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Aita ketsek, qańtar aiynda teńge sońǵy tórt ai ishinde aitarlyqtai nyǵaidy. Buǵan qatysty Ulttyq bank jariialaǵan aqparatqa keibir sarapshylardyń kóńili tolmaǵan bolatyn. "Nege Ulttyq Bank bul rette qabyldaǵan sharalaryn ashyp aitpaidy" degen sipatta suraqtar bolǵan. Mine, osy suraqty Halyk Finance bylaisha egjei-tegjei zerttep kóripti:
Aidyń sońynda teńge baǵamy 1,3%-ǵa nyǵaiyp, bir AQSh dollary 518,2 teńgeni qurady. KASE saýda-sattyq kóleminiń tómendeý dinamikasy jalǵasyp, ol 4,5 mlrd dollardy qurady, bul ótken jyldyń tórtinshi toqsanyndaǵy kólemderden aitarlyqtai tómen. Qańtarda Ulttyq Bank otandyq altyn óndirýshi kásiporyndardan buryn satyp alynǵan altyndy satýdan túsken AQSh dollaryn ishki valiýta naryǵynda satý kózdeletin teńestirý tetigin endirýge sheshim qabyldady. Osylaisha 244 mlrd teńge (ortasha ailyq baǵam boiynsha 465 mln dollar) kóleminde qosymsha valiýta satyldy. Sonymen qatar, qańtarda transfertterdi qamtamasyz etý úshin 850 mln dollar aiyrbastaldy, eksporttaýshylardyń valiýtalyq túsimderiniń jartysyn satý tájiribesi jalǵasty jáne BJZQ úshin valiýta satyp alynbady, bul teńgeniń nyǵaiýyna birge yqpal etti.
Qańtarda 2024 jyldyń tórtinshi toqsanyndaǵy kórsetkishtermen salystyrǵanda KASE saýda-sattyq kóleminiń aitarlyqtai tómendeýi baiqaldy. Osylaisha, aidyń aiaǵynda saýda kólemi jeltoqsandaǵy 5,3 mlrd dollarmen jáne qarashadaǵy 5,5 mlrd dollarmen salystyrǵanda 4,5 mlrd dollardy qurady, bul valiýtaǵa suranystyń odan ári tómendeýi men turaqtanýyn kórsetedi. Ulttyq Banktiń qor birjasynda valiýtany taza satýy shamamen 1,3 mlrd dollardy qurady.
Onyń bir bóligi biýdjetke transfertterdi qamtamasyz etý úshin valiýta satýǵa, bir bóligi "Samuryq-Qazyna" AQ obligatsiialyq nesiesi arqyly Taldyqorǵan-Úsharal magistraldyq gaz qubyrynyń qurylysyn qarjylandyrýǵa qatysty. Osy eki maqsatta Ulttyq Bank qańtarda Ulttyq qordan 850 mln AQSh dollaryn satty. Ulttyq qordan túsken satý úlesi jalpy saýda kóleminiń besten bir bóligin qurady. Úshinshi bólik otandyq altyn óndirýshi kompaniialardan satyp alynǵan altyndy satýdan túsken AQSh dollaryn satýdy kózdeitin dollar satyp, oǵan altyn satyp alý tájiribesin engizýdiń nátijesi. Osy tetiktiń nátijesinde 244 mlrd teńge (nemese ortasha ailyq aiyrbas baǵamy boiynsha shamamen 465 mln dollar) alyndy.
"Ótken jyly Ulttyq qordan "Samuryq-Qazyna" AQ obligatsiialyq zaemdaryn satyp alýǵa, sondai-aq infraqurylymdyq jobalardy júzege asyrýǵa 238 mlrd teńge bólindi. 2025 jyldyń qańtarynda osyndai maqsattarǵa bólingen kólemdermen birge bul valiýtalyq saýda kólemine jáne ulttyq valiýta baǵamyna áser etýi múmkin aitarlyqtai somany bildiredi. Sondyqtan, osyǵan bailanysty valiýta baǵamyna áserin beitaraptandyrý úshin mundai satýdyń júieliligi men birkelkiligin qamtamasyz etý mańyzdy", dep atap ótti HF sarapshylary.
Teńge baǵamyna arnalǵan boljam
Aqpan aiynda Ulttyq Banktiń esebine sáikes, úkimet biýdjettik ótinimder negizinde Ulttyq qordan 550 mln dollardan 650 mln dollarǵa deiin (ortasha eseppen 600 mln dollar) valiýta satýdy josparlap otyr. Sonymen qatar, "aina" tájiribesi jalǵasady, onyń aiasynda aqpan aiynda shamamen 250 mlrd teńge (nemese shamamen 475 mln dollar) somaǵa valiýta satý josparlanýda. Nátijesinde aqpanda Ulttyq Bankten naryqqa valiýtanyń ai saiynǵy taza aǵyny qańtardaǵydan tómen bolýy múmkin. Sonymen qatar, Ulttyq Bank BJZQ zeinetaqy aktivteriniń valiýtalyq úlesin qoldaý úshin aqpan aiynda shetel valiýtasyn satyp alýdy josparlap otyrǵan joq, al kvazimemlekettik sektor sýbektileriniń valiýtalyq túsimderdiń 50%-yn mindetti túrde satýy týraly ereje de bar.
"Osylaisha, syrtqy jáne ishki faktorlar ózgerissiz qalǵan jáne aiyrbas baǵamynyń dinamikasyna áser etetin jańa jaǵymsyz jaǵdailar týyndamaǵan jaǵdaida aqpan aiynda dollardyń teńgege shaqqandaǵy baǵamy shamamen qazirgi deńgeide saqtalady dep boljaimyz. Biylǵy aiyrbas baǵamy boiynsha boljamdarǵa keletin bolsaq, jyl sońyna deiin ol bir dollar 550-560 teńge aralyǵynda bolýy múmkin dep boljap otyrmyz", - deidi HF sarapshysy Mádina Qabjalialova.
Munaidyń álemdik baǵasyna qatysty joǵary belgisizdik saqtalýda, al Donald Tramptyń saiasaty AQSh-taǵy taqtatas munaiy óndirisiniń artýyna alyp kelýi múmkin, bul álemdik baǵaǵa qosymsha qysym jasaidy.
"Rýbl faktoryna keletin bolsaq, QR Ulttyq Bank tóraǵasynyń orynbasarynyń jýyrdaǵy túsiniktemesin keltire ketken jón, ol rýbl naqty faktorlardyń, sonyń ishinde sanktsiialyq quramdas bólikke bailanysty áser etetinin atap ótti. Qazirgi jaǵdaida Resei rýbliniń dinamikasy sheshýshi faktor bolmaýy kerek jáne jergilikti naryqtaǵy aiyrbas baǵamynyń qalyptasýyn áleýetti túrde burmalaityn jáne shamadan tys qubylmalylyqqa ákeletin shamadan tys naryqtyq reaktsiiaǵa yqpal etýi múmkin. Qazirgi ýaqytta bizdiń elderimizdiń naryqtary ártúrli jaǵdaida ornalasyp, jumys istep jatqany anyq. Biz bul pikirmen Qazaqstan Respýblikasynyń barlyq syrtqy saýda (import-eksport) operatsiialarynda rýblmen esep aiyrysý úlesiniń salystyrmaly túrde tómen bolýyna bailanysty tolyq kelisemiz", dep naqtylai túsedi sarapshy.
Ekinshi jaǵynan, biyl transfertterdiń joǵary kólemi (5,2 trln teńge) bekitildi, sondai-aq aiyrbas baǵamyn turaqtandyrý úshin basqa quraldardy qoldanýǵa bolady – Biryńǵai jinaqtaýshy zeinetaqy qoryna valiýta satyp alýdy retteý, 75%-ǵa deiin ulǵaitylýy múmkin valiýtalyq túsimderdi mindetti túrde satý týraly ereje, jalpy ulttyq valiýta baǵamyna aitarlyqtai qoldaý kórsete alatyn jańa tetik.
Buǵan deiin saitymyzda "Teńgeni qoldaý: Ulttyq Bank aqpan aiynda qansha valiýta satýdy josparlap otyrǵanyn aitty" degen material jariialanǵan bolatyn.
