Qazaqstan qarjygerleri qaýymdastyǵynyń (QQQ) analitikalyq ortalyǵy 2025 jylǵy qyrkúiektegi keibir indikatorlarǵa qatysty qarjy naryǵynyń kásibi qatysýshylary arasynda júrgizgen kezekti saýalnamalarynyń nátijesin usyndy. Oǵan sáikes, sarapshylar ailyq infliatsiianyń ekpinge basýy (shildede 0,7% -dan tamyzda 1,0%-ǵa deiin) jáne ekonomikadaǵy infliatsiialyq táýekelderdiń joǵarylyǵy (janar-jaǵarmai men kommýnaldyq qyzmetter tarifteriniń ósimi, ulttyq valiýtanyń álsireýi, biýdjet shyǵystary men QQS-tyń ósýi, jahandyq naryqtardaǵy azyq-túlik baǵalarynyń ósýi) qazan aiynda monetarlyq saiasatty qatańdatýǵa ákelip soqtyrýy múmkin ekenin aitady, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Bazalyq mólsherleme
Sol sebepti Ulttyq Banktiń 10 qazandaǵy otyrysynda "bazalyq mólsherlemeni ósirý týraly sheshim qabyldanady" dep kútetin sarapshylardyń úlesi burynǵy 22% - dan 40% - ǵa deiin artty. Olardyń aitýynsha, qalǵan kópshiligi (60% vs. aldyndaǵy 78%) mólsherleme burynǵy 16,5% deńgeiinde saqtalady dep sanaidy.
Aita ketsek, bazalyq mólsherleme boiynsha sheshimge qyrkúiek aiyndaǵy TBI dinamikasy aitarlyqtai áser etetin bolady. Sondyqtan sarapshylardyń bul rettegi pikiri infliatsiiaǵa qatysty tyń derekter jariialanǵannan keiin qazan aiynyń basynda aiqyndalyp, tipti ózgerýi de múmkin. Sonymen qatar, bir jylǵa arnalǵan bazalyq mólsherleme boiynsha konsensýs boljamy 15,25%-dan 15,5% - ǵa deiin joǵarylatý turǵysynda qaita qaraldy, bul infliatsiialyq táýekelderdiń kúsheiýin jáne júiede joǵary mólsherlemelerdi saqtaý qajettiligin kórsetedi.
Infliatsiia
Aita keteiik, bir jylǵa arnalǵan infliatsiialyq kútýler deńgeii 11,4%-ǵa (buryn 11,3% bolǵan) deiin ósti. Bul rette Ulttyq Bank 2026 jyly TBI 9,5-11,5% deńgeiinde bolady dep bajailaidy.
1 AQSh dollary - 541,6 teńge
Joǵary mólsherlemeler, QR táýelsiz reitingi boiynsha S&P boljamynyń jaqsarýy, Ulttyq Banktiń shetel valiýtalary boiynsha netto-satylymynyń ósimi jáne AQSh Federaldyq qorynyń mólsherlemeni tómendetýi aiasynda rezident emes tulǵalardyń qazaqstandyq memlekettik baǵaly qaǵazdarǵa degen suranysynyń artý áleýeti ulttyq valiýta baǵamyna degen qysymdy álsiretýi múmkin. Qazan aiynyń basyna qarai ulttyq valiýtaǵa shaqqanda 1 AQSh dollary 541,6 teńge shamasynda bolady dep kútiledi, al jyl sońynai qarai bul baǵam 565,0 teńgege deiin álsireidi dep boljanady (aldyńǵy boljamda tiisinshe – 541,7 jáne 573,0).
Munai baǵasy ózgerissiz qalýy múmkin
Bir jyldan keiin Brent markaly munaidyń bir barreli Federaldyq qor mólsherlemeleriniń tómendeý tsikliniń kútilýine jáne OPEK-tiń óndiris kólemin aqyryndap ósirýine (qazan aiynan bastap táýligine 137 myń barrel) bailanysty 66,7 dollar (bir ai buryn - 66,5) deńgeiinde qalyptasady dep boljanady.
JIÓ kólemi tómendeýi yqtimal
Aldaǵy 12 aida shikizat óndirisiniń ulǵaiýynan, uzaq merzim qatań qarjy saiasatynyń saqtalýy jáne negizgi saýda seriktesterinde JIÓ ósiminiń baiaýlaýynan bolatyn áserdiń sarqylýyna bailanysty elimizdegi ekonomikalyq ósim 4,8%-ǵa deiin baiaýlaýy múmkin (qazir - 6,3%).
Buǵan deiin Ulttyq ekonomika ministrliginiń 2026–2035 jyldarǵa arnalǵan uzaqmerzimdi damý boljamy jobasyn ázirlegenin jazǵanbyz.
