Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderi 8 aqpannan bastap Resei men Belarýspen birlesken ortaq energetikalyq júieden (BRELL) óz jelilerin tolyqtai ajyratyp, ony Eýropalyq odaqtaǵyǵa qosýǵa resmi túrde kiristi. Latviia, Litva jáne Estoniia prezidentteri bul oqiǵany "tarihi sát" dep málimdedi, óitkeni bul osy elder úshin belgili bir deńgeide energetikalyq táýelsizdikke qol jetkizýdi bildiredi, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Bul sheshimniń saldary qandai bolýy múmkin nemese taraptar qai jaǵynan utyp, qai jaǵynan utylýy yqtimal
Aldymen BRELL júiesi degen ne edi? Sony túsinip alalyq. Bul - Belarýs, Resei, Estoniia, Latviia, Litva elderiniń arasynda 2001 jyly jasalǵan kelisim negizinde qalyptasqan ortaq energetikalyq sheńber. Ol elder arasyndaǵy joǵaryvoltty jelilerdi bir-birimen bailanystyryp, elektr qýatynyń artyq ne kem tustaryn teńestirip kelgen. Máselen, bir elde energiia jetispei jatsa, kórshisimen avtomatty túrde almasatyn daiyn júie bar degendei. Sonymen qatar taraptar bir-birine eksport jáne import retinde de elektr qýatyn jetkizýde osy júieni tiimli paidalanyp kelgen. Degenmen 2022 jyldyń mamyr aiynan bastap Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderi BRELL júiesinde bolǵanyna qaramastan Resei men Belarýsten elektr qýatyn kóp kólemde satyp alýdy qysqartqan.
Saiasi qysym men bopsalaýǵa jol bermeimiz!
Litva prezidenti Gitanas Naýseda "energetikalyq táýelsizdikke qol jetkizdik, endi saiasi qysym men bopsalaýǵa jol bermeimiz" dep málimdedi. Shynynda da, Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderi Keńes Odaǵy zamanynan beri Resei-Belarýs jelisine bailanǵan edi. Al Eýropalyq odaqqa qosylǵannan keiin, ásirese 2017 jyldan bastap, Litva, Latviia jáne Estoniia 2025 jylǵa deiin "BRELL-den tolyqtai shyǵamyz" dep sheshken. Sol nietin olar qazir iske asyra aldy.
"Bul maqsatqa EO tarapynan 1,6 mlrd eýroǵa jýyq qarjy bólindi. Qarjynyń basym bóligi transshekaralyq infraqurylymdy (mysaly, Polsha arqyly keletin jańa elektr jelilerin) salýǵa jumsalmaq", dep jazdy Deutshe Welle.
Saiasi "ajyrasýdyń" qymbatqa túskeni me?
Alaida mundai "energetikalyq ajyrasýdyń" óz saldary bar, dep jazǵan reseilik "Ekspert" basylymy, tipti onyń esep-qisabyn da shyǵaryp ta úlgeripti.
Sonymen, eń aldymen, úsh eldiń energiia balansyna kóz júgirtelik. Latviia, Litva jáne Estoniia byltyr saǵatyna 27,1 mlrd kVt elektr qýatyn tutynǵan, biraq ózderi sonyń 18,5 milliardtyn ǵana óndirgen. Demek, olarǵa shamamen 8,6 mlrd kVt·saǵat jetpeidi, iaǵni tutynystyń 31 paiyzǵa jýyǵy syrttan keledi. Kezinde bul tapshylyqtyń edáýir bóligin Resei men Belarýs jaýyp otyrǵan. Mysaly, Litvada 2009 jyly Ignalin AES-i jabylǵaly beri elektr qýatyn importtaý qajettiligi myqtap artty, qazirgi tapshylyǵy - 4,5 mlrd kVt·saǵ shamasynda. Estoniiada tapshylyq — 3 mlrd, al Latviiada — 1 mlrd kVt·saǵ.
Biraq Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderi sońǵy jyldary Reseiden tikelei satyp alýdy toqtatyp, Polsha, Shvetsiia, Finliandiia siiaqty EO elderinen tokty qymbatqa importtai bastady. Nátijesinde 2019 jyly bul memleketter Reseiden shamamen 15,8 mlrd kVt·saǵ energiia alsa, 2024 jyly bul kólem 11,1 mlrd-qa tústi. Import azaidy degenmen, baǵa qymbattady: 1 kVt·saǵ úshin tólenetin ortasha tarif 0,044 dollardan 0,082 dollarǵa ósti. Eger burynǵydai kólemde satyp ala berse, jyldyq shyǵyn 1,295 mlrd dollarǵa jeter edi, iaǵni 2019 jyldaǵy 705 mln dollarmen salystyrǵanda 590 mln dollarǵa artyq. Biraq tutynysty únemdeýdiń arqasynda "qosymsha shyǵyn" shamamen 200 mln dollardyń ainalasynda qaldy. Munyń ózi de az qarajat emes. Demek, Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderi qymbat importqa táýeldilikti biraz sezinýde.
Endi elektr energiiasynyń qaidan kelip jatqanyn taldaiyq. 2024 jyly Shvetsiia Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderine 5,2 mlrd kVt·saǵ tasymaldap, basty jetkizýshige ainalǵan. Muny Shvetsiianyń sý jáne jel energiiasyna bai bolýy, iaǵni arzan elektr óndirisi potentsialymen túsindirýge bolady. Finliandiia, kerisinshe, kabeldik jelilerdiń isten shyǵýyna bailanysty (EstLink-2) 42 paiyzǵa az jibergen, barlyǵy 4,2 mlrd kVt·saǵ shamasynda. Al Polsha tasymalyn 63 paiyzǵa arttyrǵan, kólem - 1,7 mlrd kVt·saǵ jetken. Qalai bolǵanda da baltyq jaǵalaýy elderi úshin búgingi tańda Resei-Belarýs jelisi is júzinde ajyratylǵan.
Kún shyqpai, jel soqpai qalsa ne isteidi?
Bul jerde taǵy bir mańyzdy qaýip — úsh eldiń óz energetikalyq qurylymy jańartylatyn kózderge qatty súienedi. Mysaly, Litvadaǵy elektr óndirisiniń 76, Latviiada 75, Estoniiada 44 paiyzy negizinen jel, kún nemese GES arqyly keledi. Mundai "tabiǵatqa táýeldi" júiede kún shyqpai, jel turmai qalsa, óndiris kúrt tómendep, baǵa ósedi nemese múldem jaryqsyz otyrý qaýpi bar. Buryn Resei men Belarýsten avtomatty túrde energiia alynyp, mundai qiyndyq belgili bir dárejede ońai sheshilip kelgen. Endi apattyq jaǵdai bolǵan kezde, kórshi elderden birden qýat ala qoiý múmkin emes. Máselen, 5 aqpanda Estoniiadaǵy Aývereskaia stantsiiasy (270 MVt) men Narvadaǵy bir blok (200 MVt) qatar isten shyqqanda, elde 470 MVt tapshylyq baiqaldy. Buryn osyndaida Belarýs pen Resei kómektesken bolsa, endi ondai múmkindik shektelgen.
Belarýs qatty zardap shegedi
Ekinshi jaǵynan, Resei men Belarýs te azdy-kópti shyǵyn kórip otyr. Alaida Reseidiń jalpy eksportynda Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderine jiberiletin elektr kólemi edáýir az bolatyn, tabystyń 25 paiyzy shamasynda dep eseptelgen. Tipti Eýropa baǵytyndaǵy eksport tolyǵymen qysqarǵan soń da, bul Reseidiń jalpy biýdjetine aitarlyqtai aýyr salmaq salmady: energiia eksportynan túsetin kiris el eksportynyń 0,2 paiyzyn ǵana quraidy eken. Al Belarýs kóbirek zardap shekti deýge bolady. Olar Litva shekarasynan nebári 40 shaqyrym jerden Ostrovets AES-in (qýaty 2400-2500 MVt) turǵyzǵan edi. Basty maqsat — Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderine energiia satý. Alaida Litva budan birden bas tartyp, jelilerin buǵattap tastady. 2019 jyly 2,4 mlrd kVt·saǵ jetkizilse, 2020 jyldan beri kórsetkish kúrt quldyrap, 700 mln kVt·saǵ-qa túsken. Osylaisha Belarýstiń jyl saiyn joǵaltatyn tabysy 38-132 mln dollar shamasyna jetken. Bul jaǵdaida Minsk ishki tutynysty ulǵaityp, qaladaǵy jylytý júiesine elektr qazandyqtaryn ornatyp, kólik pen turǵyn úi sektoryn kóbirek elektrge kóshirýge tyrysýda. Osylaisha AES óndirgen qýatty ózi igerýge tyrysyp, gazǵa degen suranysty da azaitpaq.
Qoryta aitqanda, Baltyq elderi úshin basty jetistik — Resei men Belarýske táýeldilikten qutylyp, saiasi turǵyda "energetikalyq derbestikti" nyǵaitý boldy. Eýropalyq odaq bul qadamdy qoldap, aýqymdy investitsiia quidy. Degenmen birqatar táýelkelder týyndady: elektr tarifteriniń qymbattyǵy, rezervtik qýat kóziniń bolmaýy jáne jel men kún energiiasyna tym kóp iek artý. Al Belarýs pen Resei úshin bul eksporttan túsetin kiristiń bir bóliginen airylý bolsa da, asa iri shyǵyn emes. Onyń ústine, Belarýs ishki naryqty keńeitip, AES qýatyn tolyqtai paidalanýdyń amalyna kóship jatyr. Endeshe BRELL júiesiniń qulaýy tek energetika turǵysynan emes, geosaiasi salmaǵy bar, saiasi sheshim deýge negiz bar. Al aldaǵy ýaqytta Baltyq jaǵalaýy elderiniń energoderbestigi tolyq qamtamasyz etile me, ony aldaǵy ýaqyt kórsetedi.
