Qazaqstan qarjygerleri qaýymdastyǵy (QQQ) qarjy naryǵyna qatysýshylar men sarapshylar arasynda júrgizetin ai saiynǵy saýalnamasynyń qorytyndysyn jariialady. Oǵan sáikes, munai óndirisi kóleminiń qysqarýy ári baǵanyń tómendeýi jáne joǵary paiyzdyq mólsherlemeler saldarynan iskerlik belsendiliktiń baiaýlaýy saldarynan 2025 jyly JIÓ ósiminiń tejeletini boljanady, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
2025 jyly 1 AQSh dollary - 524,1-545,2 teńge
"Qarjy naryǵy sarapshylarynyń ulttyq valiýta baǵamyna qatysty kútiletin boljamdy qarashada aiynda teńgeniń álsireýi aiasynda aitarlyqtai nasharlatty (+5%): bir aidan keiin, iaǵni 2025 jyldyń basynda teńgege shaqqandaǵy 1 AQSh dollary 524,1 teńge (qazir - 513,62 teńge) bolýy múmkin dep boljanady. Sonymen qatar, aldaǵy 12 ai boiynda teńgeniń nyǵaiý úrdisi kútilmeidi, kerisinshe ulttyq valiýtaǵa shaqqanda dollar 6%-ǵa nyǵaiyp, jyl boiynda 545,2 teńgege deiin jetýi múmkin", - deidi Qazaqstan qarjygerleri qaýymdastyǵy saýalnama nátijesine súiene otyryp.
Bir aita keterligi, atalǵan saýalnama jeltoqsan aiynyń basynda ótkizilgendikten, sarapshylardyń pikirine qarasha aiyndaǵy valiýta naryǵynda bolǵan jaǵdai áser etýi múmkin ekeni de eskertiledi.
Munaidyń bir barreliniń baǵamy 71,7 dollarǵa deiin tómendeýi múmkin
"Resei rýbliniń ishki faktorlary men qubylmalylyǵynan bólek, aldaǵy jyly teńgege munai baǵasynyń aitarlyqtai tómendeýi keri áser etýi múmkin: bir jyldan keiin AQSh-ta munai óndirisiniń ulǵaiýy saldarynan Qytai men Eýropanyń shikizatqa degen suranysynyń tómendeýine bailanysty "qara altynnyń" bir barreli 71,7 dollar (77,4 - ai buryn) deńgeiinde bolady dep kútiledi. Sondai-aq, 2025 jyly OPEK+ elderi (munai óndirisi kólemin erikti qysqartý jáne ótemaqy jospary) aldynda qabyldaǵan mindettemeleri sheńberinde QR-da munai óndirisiniń kólemi qysqartylýy múmkin".
Qańtar aiynda bazalyq mólsherleme taǵy kóteriledi me?
"Qarasha aiyndaǵy otyrysta bazalyq mólsherlemeni birden 100 b.t-ǵa arttyryp, 15,25%-ǵa deiin kóterý aqsha aiyrbas baǵamyn turaqtandyrý jáne baǵanyń ósimin tejeý boiynsha qabyldanǵan sharalardyń biri boldy. Osyǵan qaramastan, saýalnamaǵa qatysqan qarjy naryǵy sarapshylary qańtar aiynda bazalyq mólsherleme taǵy joǵarylaidy dep boljaidy: 55%-y - aǵymdaǵy deńgeii saqtalady dese, 25%-y 25-100 b.t-ǵa tómendeidi, al 20%-y - 25-75 b.t-ǵa joǵarylaidy dep sanaidy. Importtalatyn infliatsiianyń eldegi baǵanyń ósýi, munai baǵasynyń jáne ulttyq valiýta baǵamynyń qaita tómendetýi múmkin. Osynyń aiasynda infliatsiialyq kútiletin boljam ósimdi kórsetedi: bir jyldan keiin infliatsiia 9,5% -dy quraýy yqtimal. Bul eldegi qatań monetarlyq sharttardyń uzaqqa saqtaýdy talap etýi múmkin: bir jylda bazalyq mólsherleme 14,25% (bir ai buryn 13,0%) deńgeiinde qalyptasady dep boljanady".
Bir jylda infliatsiia bir ai burynǵy boljamdaǵy 8,4%-dyń ornyna 9,5%-ǵa jetýi múmkin.
Munai óndirisi kóleminiń qysqarýy, onyń baǵasynyń tómendeýi jáne joǵary paiyzdyq mólsherlemeler saldarynan iskerlik belsendiliktiń baiaýlaýy 2025 jyly JIÓ ósimi qarqynyna teris áser etýi múmkin: 2025 jyldyń aiaǵynda JIÓ ósimi Ulttyq banktiń 4,5–5,5% jáne Ulttyq ekonomika ministrliginiń 5,6% boljamymen salystyrǵanda 4,4% bolady dep kútiledi.
Buǵan deiin Ulttyq banktiń 2024 jyldyń qarasha aiyndaǵy Aqsha-kredit saiasaty týraly kezekti qujatty jariialady.Munda el ekonomikasynyń negizgi makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishteri nasharlaý turǵysynda qaita qarastyrylǵan. Máselen, ondaǵy pessimistik stsenarii boljamyna sáikes, munaidyń bir barreliniń quny 2025 jyly 50 dollar bolýy yqtimal. Sondai-aq Bank of America munai baǵasynyń 65 dollarǵa deiin tómendeitinin boljady.
