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«Santa-Klaýstyń ralliiniń» favoriti: qandai aktsiialardyń baǵasy ósedi?

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«Santa-Klaýstyń ralliiniń» favoriti: qandai aktsiialardyń baǵasy ósedi?
1972 jyly Stock Trader’s Almanac kitabynyń avtory Iel Hirsh «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» terminin engizdi. Ol S&P 500 indeksiniń terbelisine taldaý jasap, mynadai zańdylyqty anyqtady: aǵymdaǵy jyldyń sońǵy bes saýda kúninde jáne kelesi jyldyń alǵashqy eki saýda kúninde aktsiialardyń baǵasy 79,2% jaǵdaida ósedi. 1950-2020 jyldar aralyǵyndaǵy kezeńde «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» 57 ret bolǵan, al S&P 500 indeksi ortasha alǵanda 1,3%-ǵa ósetin.

Tamerlan Absaliamov, Freedom Finance Global kompaniiasynyń taldaýshysy

«Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» terminine onyń paida bolǵanyn túsindirýge arnalǵan ártúrli teoriialardy jatqyzatyn. Mundai teoriialardyń birine sáikes, investorlardyń optimizmi mereke kúnderi saýdanyń kóp bolýynan jáne jyldyq bonýstardy investitsiialarǵa salýdan bolatyn merekelik kóńil-kúige bailanysty.



Basqa teoriiaǵa sáikes, osy kezeńde institýtsionaldyq investorlar demalysqa shyǵady, olar naryqty ádettegidei, optimistik kózqarasta bolatyn bólshek investorlarǵa qaldyrady. «Qańtar barometrine» keletin bolsaq, bul - qor naryǵynyń qańtar aiynda baiqalatyn kiristiligi jyl boiyna naryq kórsetkishterin boljaý indikatory retinde qyzmet etedi dep sendiretin teoriia.

S&P500 indeksiniń búkil tarihynda belgili bir ailarda joǵary kiristilik qatty baiqalatyn. Qarashadan qańtarǵa deiingi kezeń statistikalyq ósetin serpindi kórsetedi: qarasha aiynda ortasha kiristilik 1,42%-dy, jeltoqsan aiynda – 1,37%-dy, al qańtar aiynda 0,98%-dy qurady. Kerisinshe, tamyz ben qyrkúiek ailary tarihi turǵydan álsiz kezeń bolyp sanalady, olardyń kiristiligi ortasha alǵanda -0,26%-dy jáne -0,57%-dy quraidy. Sondai-aq, naryqqa qatysýshylar ai sońynda, ásirese ár aidyń sońǵy birneshe kúninde, aktsiialar ádettegidei aǵymdaǵy aidyń sońynda jáne kelesi aidyń basynda kóbirek ósýge beiim bolǵanda áser bolady dep boljaidy. Aǵymdaǵy aidyń sońǵy tórt kúnindegi jáne odan keiingi aidyń alǵashqy eki kúnindegi saýda 64% jaǵdaida oń ósýge ákeledi. Ailardyń arasyndaǵy osy qubylysty eskere otyryp, kúntizbelik jyldyń sońyndaǵy kórsetilgen ósý tendentsiiasy «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» tujyrymdamasyna sáikes keledi.

Sodan keiin ralli qańtar aiynyń alǵashqy eki saýda kúnine sozylady. Investorlar aktsiialardy kóbinese qańtar aiynda baǵalar ósedi degen úmitpen satyp alady, ony ádette «qańtar aiynyń áseri» dep atalady. Zertteýler kórsetkendei, jeltoqsan aiynda aktsiialardyń quny ósetin aktsiialardyń qunynan asyp túsýi múmkin. Keibir investorlar salyq shyǵyndaryn jinaýǵa qatysýy múmkin, aktsiialardy keri satyp alýdy nemese jyl qorytyndysy boiynsha naryqqa aqsha syilyqaqylaryn salýdy júzege asyrady. Keibireýler úshin qańtar aiy investitsiialyq baǵdarlamany bastaý nemese portfeldi qaita teńgerimdeý úshin qolaily ai bolyp sanalady.

Statistikaǵa sáikes, jeltoqsan aiy aktsiialar úshin neǵurlym kúshti ai, biraq biylǵy jyly ralli Federaldy rezervtik júieniń qarasha aiyndaǵy otyrysynan bastaldy. Treiderler tóraǵa Djerom Paýeldiń pikirin FRJ infliatsiianyń jáne eńbek naryǵynyń báseńdeýi aiasynda aqsha-kredittik saiasatty qatańdatý tsiklynyń sońyna jetti dep túsindirdi, bul rette ekonomika ornyqtylyǵyn jalǵastyra berdi.

Jyl sońynda «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» nátijesinde ósýi múmkin birneshe qyzyqty aktsiialardy qarastyraiyq:

An illustration of Amazon (AMZN) fully engaged in holiday preparations. The scene shows a dynamic and bustling Amazon warehouse, symbolizing their readiness for the year-end sales season. Workers are busy packing and shipping a variety of products, reflecting the company
An illustration of Amazon (AMZN) fully engaged in holiday preparations. The scene shows a dynamic and bustling Amazon warehouse, symbolizing their readiness for the year-end sales season. Workers are busy packing and shipping a variety of products, reflecting the company


Amazon (AMZN). Elektrondyq kommertsiia alpaýyty - Amazon merekelerge daiyndyqqa tolyǵymen kirisip ketti. 10 jáne 11 qazan kúnderi Prime Day jappai satylymynyń ǵajap kórinisin aiaqtaǵannan keiin, kompaniia jyl sońynda saýda qyzý júretin maýsymǵa daiyndalyp, búkil álem boiynsha taǵy 250 myń qyzmetkerdi jumysqa qabyldaǵysy keletinin jariialady. Qyzmetkerler tolyq nemese ishinara jumys isteidi, sondai-aq olar ýaqytsha maýsymdyq jumystarǵa tartylady. Aita keteiik, jyl sońyndaǵy jappai satylym bolatyn belsendi kezeń qarsańynda kompaniia qyzmetkerler shtatyn 2022 jyldyń tórtinshi toqsanymen salystyrǵanda 100 myń adamǵa ulǵaitty.

Amazon jylyna eki ret ótkizetin Prime Day naýqany kompaniianyń kirisin ulǵaitýda sheshýshi ról atqarady. Shilde aiynda ótkizilgen sońǵy naýqan tańqalarlyq 12 mlrd AQSh dollaryn ákeldi, bul Amazon-nyń búgingi kúnge deiingi eń tabysty Prime Day-y boldy.


Amazon merekelik saýda maýsymyn uzartý úrdisin kórsete otyryp, Prime Day jappai satylymynyń ekinshi naýqanyn únemi tórtinshi toqsanda neǵurlym erterek merzimge aýystyryp otyrady. Budan basqa, kompaniia qarasha aiynyń sońyna qarai strategiialyq túrde orailastyrylǵan jáne Alǵys aitý kúnimen bailanysty «jomart juma» jáne «kiber dúisenbi» dep atalatyn jappai satylymdary jasaǵan serpindi paidalanady. Investitsiialyq bankterdiń ortasha nysanaly baǵasy - 178 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde bolyp otyr (apsaidtyń 16%-na jýyq).

An illustration of Meta Platforms (META) anticipating significant sales growth at year-end, and potential stock gains during the "Santa Claus rally". The scene shows a futuristic Meta store, designed with cutting-edge technology and a modern aesthetic. The store is showcasing a range of new electronic models strategically released for the holiday consumer spending season. Shoppers are exploring virtual reality headsets and other innovative gadgets. A digital display in the background highlights Meta
An illustration of Meta Platforms (META) anticipating significant sales growth at year-end, and potential stock gains during the "Santa Claus rally". The scene shows a futuristic Meta store, designed with cutting-edge technology and a modern aesthetic. The store is showcasing a range of new electronic models strategically released for the holiday consumer spending season. Shoppers are exploring virtual reality headsets and other innovative gadgets. A digital display in the background highlights Meta


Meta Platforms (META). Tehnologiialyq Meta Platforms alpaýyty jyl sońynda satylymnyń aitarlyqtai ósýin kútedi jáne eger investorlardyń kóńil-kúii jaqsaryp, naryqta myqty «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» paida bolsa, onyń aktsiialary aitarlyqtai paida ákelýi múmkin. Jaqynda kompaniia merekelik tutynýshylyq shyǵyndardy jiberip almas úshin strategiialyq turǵydan baǵyttalǵan elektronikanyń birqatar jańa modelderin usyndy.

Bul usynystardyń ishindegi eń bastysy - jaqynda shyǵarylǵan Quest 3 virtýaldy shynaiylyq garnitýrasy, onyń baǵasy 499 AQSh dollaryn quraidy, bul onyń beine oiyndarǵa baǵyttalǵanyn kórsetedi. Jańa Quest 3 garnitýrasy Microsoft Xbox usynǵan oiyndardy qoldaýǵa arnalǵan, bul oiynshylar úshin tiimdi tańdaý bolyp sanalady.


Sý jańa Meta VR garnitýrasy Apple usynǵan tolyqtyrylǵan shynaiylyq Vision Pro garnitýrasy boljamdy shyqqanǵa deiin birneshe ai buryn naryqta paida boldy, ol tek 2024 jyldyń basynda satylymǵa shyǵýy kerek. Budan basqa, Meta daýystyq pármender arqyly fotosýretter men videolardy túsirý múmkindigimen jabdyqtalǵan Ray-Ban aralas shynaiylyq smart kózildirikteriniń jańartylǵan nusqasyn usyndy, bul satylymnyń zor múmkindigin boljaidy. Budan ári ósý bolashaǵy jaqyn ýaqytta bolady, ásirese eger «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» júzege asqan jaǵdaida bolmaq. Investitsiialyq bankterdiń ortasha nysanaly baǵasy 385 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde bolyp otyr (apsaidtyń 10%-na jýyq).

An illustration of Apple (AAPL) preparing for the year-end holiday sales and experiencing a stock price rise during the "Santa Claus rally". The scene should depict a sleek Apple store, decorated for the holidays with modern and minimalistic design. The store showcases the latest range of consumer electronics, including iPhones and MacBook computers. Enthusiastic shoppers are exploring the products, and a large display highlights the new releases, emphasizing the boost in sales. A stock market graph in the background shows an upward trend, symbolizing the rise in Apple
An illustration of Apple (AAPL) preparing for the year-end holiday sales and experiencing a stock price rise during the "Santa Claus rally". The scene should depict a sleek Apple store, decorated for the holidays with modern and minimalistic design. The store showcases the latest range of consumer electronics, including iPhones and MacBook computers. Enthusiastic shoppers are exploring the products, and a large display highlights the new releases, emphasizing the boost in sales. A stock market graph in the background shows an upward trend, symbolizing the rise in Apple


Apple (AAPL). Jyl sońyndaǵy merekelik saýda jasaýdan paida tabýǵa jáne «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» kezinde óz aktsiialarynyń baǵasynyń ósýin sezinýge daiyn taǵy bir tehnologiialyq kompaniia bul – Apple kompaniiasy. Jyl saiyn qyrkúiek aiynda kompaniia merekelik saýda jasaý qarsańynda tutynýshylyq elektronikanyń eń jańa jelisin usynady, bul ártúrli taýarlardyń, sonyń ishinde iPhone jáne MacBook kompiýterleriniń satylymynyń ósýin atap ótti. Ótken qyrkúiek aiynda Apple smart saǵattardyń, iPad-tyń, AirPods-tyń jáne atap aitqanda qýattaý porty jańa jáne titan korpýsy neǵurlym berik iPhone 15 smartfonynyń jańa nusqalaryn, sondai-aq basqa da keremet múmkindikterdi usyndy. Vision Pro aralas shynaiylyq garnitýrasynyń kópten kútken shyǵarylymynyń arqasynda Apple-diń jyl sońyndaǵy satylymynyń ósý qarqyny jáne 2024 jyldyń basynda saqtalady dep kútilýde.

Biylǵy jyldyń maýsym aiynda tanystyrylǵan Vision Pro garnitýrasy Apple kompaniiasynyń sońǵy onjyldyqtaǵy alǵashqy jańa ónimi bolyp tabylady jáne naryqtyq boljamdar bul garnitýrany úzdik satylym bolady kórsetýde.


AAPL-dyń aktsiialary «Santa-Klaýstyń ralliinen» týyndaǵan kez kelgen kóterilýden ósýi múmkin. Investitsiialyq bankterdiń ortasha nysanaly baǵasy - 216 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde bolyp otyr (apsaidtyń 10%-na jýyq).

An illustration of Walmart (WMT) maximizing the year-end holiday season. The scene should show a bustling Walmart store, packed with last-minute shoppers and additional staff hired for the holiday rush. The store is open 24/7 from Thanksgiving to Christmas, reflected by a large clock showing non-stop hours. The interior is festively decorated with holiday motifs, and shoppers are carrying bags full of holiday goods. A sign prominently displays
An illustration of Walmart (WMT) maximizing the year-end holiday season. The scene should show a bustling Walmart store, packed with last-minute shoppers and additional staff hired for the holiday rush. The store is open 24/7 from Thanksgiving to Christmas, reflected by a large clock showing non-stop hours. The interior is festively decorated with holiday motifs, and shoppers are carrying bags full of holiday goods. A sign prominently displays


Walmart (WMT). Bólshek saýda alpaýyty jáne Walmart bul - jyl sońyndaǵy merekelerdi barynsha tiimdi paidalaný úshin qoldan kelgenniń bárin jasaityn taǵy bir kásiporyn: qosymsha qyzmetkerlerdi jaldaidy jáne satyp alýshylardy sońǵy sátte qabyldaýǵa úlgerý úshin jumys ýaqytyn Alǵys aitý kúninen Rojdestvo aralyǵynda 24/7 deiin uzartady.

Walmart sondai-aq «jomart juma» jáne «kiber dúisenbi» jappai satylymdarynan, sondai-aq Boks kúni bolatyn arnaiy naýqandardan aitarlyqtai paida kóredi. Walmart elektronikadan bastap oiynshyqtar men kiimderge deiin taýarlardyń mol assortimentine jeńildikter usyna otyryp, dúkenderde de, sondai-aq Internet arqyly da merekelik saýda jáne naryqtaǵy áleýetti «Santa-Klaýstyń rallii» kezinde satylymnyń aitarlyqtai ósetinin atap ótti.


Walmart óziniń sońǵy qarjylyq esebinde ekinshi toqsannyń qorytyndysy boiynsha Ýoll-strittiń kútkeninen asyp tústi jáne óz boljamdaryn ózgertti. Azyq-túlik taýarlary sektoryndaǵy joǵary satylymdar men Internet arqyly shyǵyndardyń ósýine bailanysty Walmart-tyń ekinshi toqsandaǵy bir aktsiiaǵa shaqqandaǵy tabysy 1,84 AQSh dollaryn qurap, kútiletin 1,71 AQSh dollarynan asyp tústi. Kompaniianyń túsimi 161,63 mlrd AQSh dollaryna jetip, taldaýshylardyń 160,27 mlrd AQSh dollaryn quraǵan aldyńǵy boljamdarynan asyp tústi. Walmart-tyń elektrondyq kommertsiia salasyndaǵy satylymy II toqsanda byltyrǵy jylmen salystyrǵanda 24%-ǵa ósti, al bir dúkendegi satylym 6,4%-ǵa aitarlyqtai ósti. Endi riteiler jyl boiyna satylym 4%-dan 4,50%-ǵa deiin ósedi dep kútedi. Investitsiialyq bankterdiń ortasha nysanaly baǵasy 178,6 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde bolyp otyr (apsaidtyń 14,8%-na jýyq).

A festive shopping scene with consumers using American Express (AXP) credit cards for holiday purchases. The illustration should depict a bustling shopping area, adorned with holiday decorations like Christmas lights and wreaths. People of diverse ethnicities are happily shopping, holding American Express credit cards, and carrying shopping bags. Storefronts in the background are inviting and decorated for the holidays, and a large American Express logo is prominently displayed in the scene, symbolizing the convenience and popularity of the card during the festive season.
A festive shopping scene with consumers using American Express (AXP) credit cards for holiday purchases. The illustration should depict a bustling shopping area, adorned with holiday decorations like Christmas lights and wreaths. People of diverse ethnicities are happily shopping, holding American Express credit cards, and carrying shopping bags. Storefronts in the background are inviting and decorated for the holidays, and a large American Express logo is prominently displayed in the scene, symbolizing the convenience and popularity of the card during the festive season.


American Express (AXP). Tutynýshylar ádette merekelik shyǵyndary úshin kredittik kartalardy paidalanady, bul American Express úshin qolaily jaǵdai. Kredittik kartalar shyǵaratyn kompaniia, ádette, jyl sońynda belsendi shoping kezeńinde tabysqa jetedi. Biylǵy jyly qyrkúiek aiynda American Express óz satýshylarynyń arasynda «osy merekelik maýsymda trafikti paidalanýdyń 7 strategiiasy» dep atalatyn esep taratty.

Kompaniia sondai-aq rojdestvo kezinde saýda jasaý maýsymy qarsańynda tutynýshylarǵa kredittik kartalar boiynsha ártúrli yntalandyrý múmkindikterin belsendi túrde jarnamalaidy. Kompaniianyń úshinshi toqsandaǵy sońǵy qarjylyq nátijeleri kórsetkendei, tutynýshylardyń saýda jasaý úshin kredittik kartalardy paidalanýy turaqty túrde ósken. American Express altynshy toqsan qatarynan buryn-sońdy bolmaǵan kiris týraly esep berdi, al úshinshi toqsandaǵy tabys 2,45 mlrd AQSh dollaryn nemese bir aktsiiaǵa 3,30 AQSh dollaryn qurady.

Aita keteiik, bul kórsetkish Ýoll-strittiń bir aktsiia úshin 2,96 AQSh dollary mólsherinde tabys kútken taldaýshylarynyń boljamynan asyp tústi.


Kompaniia nátijeleriniń joǵary bolýy aýqatty klientterdiń shyǵyndarynyń jalǵasyp jatqan serpinimen túsindiredi. Bul úrdis rojdestvo kezeńinde de jalǵasady dep kútilýde. Investitsiialyq bankterdiń maksimaldy maqsatty baǵasy 205 AQSh dollary deńgeiinde bolyp otyr (apsaidtyń 10%-na jýyq).

 

Jańa jyldyq ralli kezinde aktsiialardy satyp alýǵa arnalǵan 10 negizgi keńes


Daiyndyq:

 

  1. Muqiiat zertteý júrgizińiz: ralli kezinde asyǵys áreketterdi emes, sanaly sheshimderdi tańdańyz. Negizgi kórsetkishteri turaqty jáne damý traektoriiasy oń kompaniialardy tańdańyz. Kompaniianyń qarjylyq eseptiligin zerdeleńiz, tiimdiliktiń negizgi kórsetkishterin qadaǵalap, bolashaq ósý perspektivalaryn baǵalańyz.


 

  1. Sheshimderińiz tiimdi bolýy kerek: «Santa-Klaýstyń ralliiniń» kepildik berilgen áseri 100% emes ekenin moiyndańyz. Naryqtyń yqtimal qubylmalylyǵyna daiyn bolyńyz jáne quldyraý jaǵdaiynda odan shyǵýdyń naqty josparyn qurýdy umytpańyz.


 

  1. Óz portfelińizdi baǵalańyz: qolda bar aktivterdi taldańyz jáne ártaraptandyrý úshin aimaqtardy anyqtańyz. Tutyný taýarlary, saiahat jáne bólshek saýda siiaqty merekelik maýsymda dástúrli túrde damityn sektorlarǵa investitsiialaý múmkindigin qarastyryńyz.


Investitsiialyq strategiia:

  1. Aldyn ala bastańyz: sońǵy minýtta asyqpaýǵa tyrysyńyz, investitsiialyq sheshimderdi aldyn ala qabyldańyz. Oqiǵalardy aldyn ala zerdelep, tizimin qurastyrýdy bastańyz.

  2. Investitsiialardy ártaraptandyryńyz: táýekelderdi bir salaǵa shoǵyrlandyrýdyń ornyna olardy azaitý úshin investitsiialaryńyzdy ártúrli kompaniialar men sektorlarǵa bólińiz.

  3. Aktsiianyń qunyna nazar aýdaryńyz: ishki qunynan tómen satylatyn aktsiialardy tańdańyz. Naryqtyq belgisizdik kezeńinde qundyq aktsiialar kóbinese tiimdirek bolady.


 

  1. Shydamdylyq tanytyńyz: kapital qurý birtindep júretin protsess ekenin túsinińiz. Qysqa merzimdi paidaǵa umtylmai, uzaq merzimdi investitsiialyq josparyńyzdy ustanyńyz.


Táýekelderdi basqarý:

  1. Orderdiń stop-losyn qoldanyńyz: eger baǵalar belgilengen deńgeiden tómen tússe, aktsiialardy avtomatty túrde satý arqyly óz kapitalyńyzdy qorǵańyz.


 

  1. Broker investorǵa saýda jasaýǵa beretin qaryz qarajatyn shamadan tys paidalanýdan aýlaq bolyńyz: qor naryǵyna investitsiialaý úshin qaryzǵa aqsha almańyz, sebebi bul yqtimal shyǵyndardy kúsheitýi múmkin.


 

  1. Ártaraptandyrýdy saqtańyz: «Santa-Klaýs ralliiniń» tartymdylyǵyna qaramastan, portfelińizdiń basqa segmentterin nazardan tys qaldyrmańyz. Aktivterdi tiimdi bólýdi qoldaý úshin qaita teńgerimdi únemi ótkizip otyryńyz.


 

Qorytyndylai kele, uzaq merzimdi treiderler erekshelikterdi eskere otyryp, mereke kúnderi baǵa serpinine asa mán berip qaraýy kerek ekenin atap ótken jón. Ai sońynda jáne jyl sońynda pozitsiialardy túzetý nátijesinde týyndaityn qubylmalylyqtyń joǵary bolýy saqtyq qajettiligin taǵy bir ret kórsetedi.

Nátijesinde, investorlar naryqtyq úrdisterdi ǵana ustanbai, jeke maqsattar men jol beriletin táýekelge súienýi kerek, paida bolý yqtimaldyǵy joǵary bolsa da maýsymdyq zańdylyqtar naryqta bolashaqta bolatyn qozǵalystardy únemi usyna almaitynyn túsinedi.
Madina Sádýaqasova

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