Iran zymyrandaryn atqylamai-aq 1 qazanda keshke qarai munai naryǵynda dúrbeleń burq etti. Taiaý Shyǵysta soǵys otynyń tutanǵaly jatqanyn, birinshi bolyp Aq úi men Pentagondaǵy derekkózderge silteme jasai otyryp, amerikalyq iskerlik BAQ-tar dabyl qaǵa habarlady. Sol-aq eken, London birjasynda 1 qazanda keshke qarai abyr-sabyr bastalyp ketti: Brent munai fiýchersteri 2,84%-ǵa ósip, qara altynnyń bir barreli 73,74 dollardy qurady, dep jazady Dalanews.kz.
Arada eki saǵat óter-ótpes ýaqytta shynymen de Iran Izrailǵa qarai 400 zymyrandy baǵyttai jaýdyrdy. Budan soń birjada tizgin qaǵyp úlgergen Brent markaly munai baǵasynyń ósimi endi 5,01%-dy qurap, bir barreli 75, 29 dollarǵa jetti. Jalpy, mamandar Taiaý Shyǵystaǵy shielenis budan ári ýshyqsa, baǵa 100 dollarǵa (!) deiin barady degen oida.
Negizi, sońǵy eki apta boiynda halyqaralyq naryqtaǵy munaidyń baǵasy tek tómendep otyrǵan bolatyn. Óitkeni OPEK+ pen Livan elderi baǵany joǵary ustaý úshin munaidy shektep óndirý amalynan bas tartýǵa qulyqty ekenderin jariialaǵan. Osy jańalyqtan keiin qara altyn baǵasy aqyryndap tómendep jatqan bolatyn. Al endi jyl basynan beri mamandar kúdiktene kútken jaǵdai oryn aldy. Iran Izrailge ashyq qaqtyǵysqa shyqsa, munai baǵasynyń qymbattaitynyn sarapshylar jyl basynan beri aityp keledi. Nege deisizder me?
Óitkeni bul arada másele Irannyń soltústigin jáne Omannyń ońtústigin tuiyqtap jatqan Ormýz buǵazynda bolyp tur. Sebebi osy buǵaz arqyly Parsy shyǵanaǵynda munai óndiretin memleketterdiń munaiy tasymaldanady. Keibir derekterge qaraǵanda, onyń jalpy kólemi óndirilgen "qara altynnyń" 20 paiyzynan asady. Sol sebepten sarapshylar Ormýz buǵazyn Iran biliginiń ózgelerge doq kórsetetin quralyna balaidy. Qaqtyǵys bastalsa, Iran osy buǵazdy jaýyp tastaýy múmkin. Eregesse Izrail da osy buǵazdy atqylaýy yqtimal. Mundai jaǵdailarda munai tasymaly máselesiniń basy qyltiyp shyǵa keledi, keibir jerlerde tapshylyq oryn alady, esesine baǵa sharyqtaidy.
Máselen, 2024 jyldyń basynda Bank of America jariialaǵan boljamǵa sáikes, Izrail men Iran arasyndaǵy qarýly qaqtyǵys aidan aiǵa jalǵasa beretin bolsa, onda iran munaiynyń tasymaly kilt tejeledi.
"Ondai jaǵdaida AQSh-ta óndireletin WTI munaiynyń bir barreli 123 dollarǵa baǵalanýy múmkin. Al qaqtyǵys keń kólemdi sipatqa ulassa, onda Irandaǵy munai óndirisi táýligine 1,5 mln barrelge deiin qysqarmaq. Óitse OPEK+ elderi munai óndirisin arttyrady, biraq tasymal jaǵynan kúrdelilikter týyndaidy. Túiindei kelgende, 2025 jyly Brent markaly munaidyń bir barreli 100 dollardan, al WTI 93 dollardan satylýy múmkin, delingen boljamda".
Geosaiasi ahýalǵa úńilsek, qos tarap ta qazir qaharyna minip alǵan. Ótken aptanyń basynan bastap Izrail Livannyń ońtústigi men Beirýtqa áýeden shabýyldar jasap keledi. Halyqaralyq áýe tasymalyna ushaqtardyń bul aýmaqtan ainalyp ótýi tiistigi de qulaqtandyrylǵan. Irannyń bul rette jaýap qatýy yqtimal ekeni boljanyp, naryqtar sol kezde-aq taqymyn qysa bastapty.
Máselen, Price Futures Group-tyń aǵa sarapshysy Fil Flinn "aiýlar" (birja tilindegi balama - red.) men hedj-qorlar ótken aptada abyr-sabyr bola bastaǵanyn aitady. "Eger Iran shabýyl jasasa, Izrail mindetti túrde jaýap qatady, óz kezeginde Tegeran, tipti Irannyń óndirýshi jáne óńdeýshi kásiporyndaryn qatardan shyǵaryp tastaýy múmkin", - deidi ol. Al mundaida naryqtardaǵy dúrbeleń, tipti alasapyranǵa da ulasýy bek yqtimal.
Munai óndirýshi el retinde Qazaqstanǵa bul jaittar qalai áser etedi, munyń talqysymen kelesi materialda tanysa alasyzdar...
PS Keshe keshkisin altynnyń da baǵasy kóterildi. Oǵan qosa, qarý-jaraq óndirýshilerdiń aktsiialary da qymbattady, dep jazady MarketWatch. Lockheed Martin-niń baǵaly qaǵazdary 3,64%-ǵa qymbattap, 605,86 dollardy qurady. Northrop Grumman aktsiiasy - 2,99%-ǵa (543,88 dollarǵa deiin), L3Harris Technologies - 3,12%–ǵa (245,29 dollarǵa deiin) ósti.
