Taiaý Shyǵystaǵy áskeri ahýaldyń ýshyǵýy Ortalyq Aziia elderin de alańdata bastady. Munai baǵasynyń qubylýy, Ormuz buǵazy mańyndaǵy qaýip-qater jáne geosaiasi belgisizdik Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna qalai áser etýi múmkin? Osy máselege bailanysty qarjyger Venera Janalina men ekonomist Almas Chýkin jan-jaqty taldaý jasady, dep habarlaidy Dalanews.kz.
Qazaq Expert Club sarapshysy, qarjyger Venera Janalinanyń aitýynsha, Iran tóńiregindegi eskalatsiia eń aldymen munai naryǵy arqyly Qazaqstanǵa áser etedi.
“Bul boljam naryqtaǵy alǵashqy reaktsiiadan-aq baiqalyp otyr. Reuters málimetinshe, Iranǵa jasalǵan soqqylardan keiin birjadan tys saýdada munai shamamen 10%-ǵa qymbattaǵan. Keibir taldaýshylar Ormuz buǵazyndaǵy irkilister uzaqqa sozylsa, Brent baǵasy barreline 100 dollardan asýy múmkin dep boljaidy. Munai qymbattasa, Qazaqstannyń eksporttyq túsimi men biýdjet kirisi ádette jaqsarady. Sebebi munai men munai ónimderi el eksportynyń shamamen jartysyn quraidy”, - deidi sarapshy.
Ol The Economist pen Reuters derekterine súiene otyryp, qaqtyǵys álemde iri munai kúizelisin týyndatýy múmkin ekenin atap ótti. Onyń sózinshe, Ormuz buǵazy jahandyq energetikanyń negizgi kúretamyry, sondyqtan ondaǵy kez kelgen irkilis naryqqa birden áser etedi.
“Buǵaz arqyly álemdik munai men munai ónimderi tutynýynyń shamamen besten biri jáne teńiz arqyly tasymaldanatyn munaidyń tórtten birinen astamy ótedi. Osy turǵydan alǵanda, Qazaqstan úshin bul jai ǵana munaidyń qymbattaýy emes, bir mezette eksport kiristerin arttyrýy múmkin. Biraq infliatsiialyq, valiýtalyq jáne logistikalyq táýekelderdi de kúsheitetin syrtqy soqqy. Ádette Brent baǵasy kóterilse, eksporttyq túsim, salyq kiristeri jáne tólem balansy jaqsarady. Bul mańyzdy, óitkeni munai men munai ónimderi Qazaqstan eksportynyń shamamen 50%-yn quraidy. Demek, el ekonomikasy áli de munai koniýnktýrasyna táýeldi”, - deidi ol.
Alaida sarapshy munai qymbattaǵan saiyn Qazaqstanǵa túsetin paida da ózdiginen eselene beredi degen pikirmen kelispeidi. Uzaqqa sozylǵan daǵdarys infliatsiianyń údeýine, teńgeniń qubylmalyǵyna jáne logistikanyń qymbattaýyna ákelýi múmkin.
Janalinanyń baǵalaýynsha, munaidyń qymbattaýy teńgege belgili bir deńgeide qoldaý kórsetýi múmkin. Biraq geosaiasi kúizelis kezinde dollar “qaýipsiz ailaq” retinde kúsheiip, ulttyq valiýtaǵa qysym túsirýi de múmkin.
“Sondyqtan teńgeniń jaǵdaiy qubylmaly boladia. Munai faktory basym tússe ǵana ulttyq valiýta turaqtanýy yqtimal”, - dep qosty ol.
Sarapshynyń aitýynsha, Ulttyq bank 2026 jyly infliatsiiany tejeýdi basty basymdyq retinde belgilep otyr.
“Eger baǵa ósimin baiaýlatatyn úrdis ornyqpasa, aqsha-nesie saiasaty qataiýy múmkin. Sonymen qatar sheteldik investorlar qazaqstandyq baǵaly qaǵazdardan shyǵa bastasa, teńge aitarlyqtai álsireýi múmkin”, - dedi ol.
Ekonomist Chýkin ne deidi?
Ekonomist Almas Chýkin Irannyń Ortalyq Aziia úshin geografiialyq ári ekonomikalyq mańyzy erekshe ekenin atap ótti.
“Bizdiń óńir teńizge tikelei shyǵa almaidy. Al Ózbekstan tipti muhitqa eki márte tuiyq el sanalady. Al Iran - Ortalyq Aziianyń teńizge shyǵatyn basty dálizi”, - deidi sarapshy.
Onyń aitýynsha, Túrikmenstan–Iran temirjol túiininen Parsy shyǵanaǵyna deiin nebári 1200–1500 shaqyrym. Bul baǵyt iske tolyq qosylsa, Ortalyq Aziia elderi álemdik porttarǵa áldeqaida qysqa jolmen shyǵýǵa múmkindik alady.
“Ol jerden Rotterdamǵa teńiz arqyly 3–4 aptada jetýge bolady. Bul - munaidy Resei arqyly Novorossiiskige, odan Qara teńiz ben Bosfor arqyly jóneltetin uzaq ári kúrdeli baǵytqa balama”, - dep túsindirdi Chýkin.
Ekonomistiń pikirinshe, eger Iranda Batysqa jaýlyq ustanbaityn jańa saiasi kezeń bastalyp, sanktsiialar jeńildese, bul Ortalyq Aziia úshin tarihi múmkindikke ainalýy múmkin.
“Mundai kórshi eldiń paida bolýy - bai, bilimdi ári áleýeti zor naryqtyń ashylýy degen sóz. Qazir bizdi Kaspii belgili bir deńgeide shektep tur. Al Iran arqyly qurlyq dálizi jandansa, kóne saýda joldary qaita tiriledi. Bul - Ortalyq Aziia úshin orasan ekonomikalyq serpilis”, - dedi ol.
Chýkin tarihi turǵydan da bul dálizdiń mańyzy zor ekenin aitady. Onyń sózinshe, órkeniet Nil boiynan bastalyp, teńiz jaǵalaýy arqyly Mesopotamiiaǵa (qazirgi Iran men Irak aýmaǵy) jetip, keiin Transoksaniiaǵa - Syrdariia men Ámýdariia ańǵarlaryna taraǵan. Iaǵni bul kólik-saýda baǵyty myńdaǵan jyldyq tarihy bar ejelgi órkeniettik dáliz sanalady.
Soǵystyń maqsaty ózgerip jatyr
Sarapshy qazirgi qaqtyǵysqa saiasi baǵa bermeitinin, ony taza ekonomikalyq jáne júielik turǵydan qaraitynyn aitty. Onyń pikirinshe, sońǵy oqiǵalar soǵys júrgizýdiń múlde jańa deńgeiin kórsetip otyr.
“Buryn tehnologiiasy basym elder kóbine túnde soqqy beretin. Al bul joly ýaqyt ádeii ózgertilgeni baiqalady. Qazir belgili bolǵandai, soqqy Irannyń joǵary basshylyǵy jinalatyn sátke dál keltirilgen”, - deidi ekonomist.
Chýkinniń paiymynsha, mundai tásil soǵys logikasyn túbegeili ózgertti. Tarihta “bileýshi bileýshige tikelei soqqy jasamaidy” degen beiresmi qaǵida bolǵan. Al qazirgi tájiribe bul erejeniń buzylǵanyn kórsetedi.
Sondai-aq ol qyrǵi-qabaq soǵystan keiin qalyptasqan “rejim aýystyrý” logikasynyń da tiimdiligi kúmándi ekenin aitty.
“Qazirgi pragmatikalyq tásil mynany kórsetedi: syrttan “durys” kóshbasshy ornatqannan góri, júiege óz bolashaǵyn ózi aiqyndaýǵa múmkindik berý tiimdi. Al eger bir tulǵa túbegeili kedergi bolsa, nysanaly qysym quraldary qoldanylýy múmkin”, - dedi Chýkin.
Ekonomistiń túiininshe, álemdik saiasi-ekonomikalyq júie jańa kezeńge aiaq basty.
“Qyzyq ári kúrdeli zaman bastalyp keledi”, - dep qorytyndylady ol.
Qazaqstan úshin negizgi dilemma
Sarapshylardyń pikirinshe, Qazaqstan úshin qazirgi jaǵdai ekiushty.
Bir jaǵynan, munai baǵasynyń ósýi eksport pen biýdjetke qysqa merzimdi qoldaý berýi múmkin. Ekinshi jaǵynan, uzaqqa sozylǵan geosaiasi daǵdarys infliatsiiany údetip, logistikany qymbattatyp, qarjy naryqtaryndaǵy turaqsyzdyqty kúsheitýi yqtimal.
Syrtqy saiasatta Qazaqstannyń dástúrli kópvektorly ustanymdy saqtaýy eń yqtimal stsenarii retinde baǵalanyp otyr. Alaida daǵdarys tereńdegen saiyn, qymbat munaidan túsetin paida men syrtqy táýekelder arasyndaǵy tepe-teńdikti saqtaý barǵan saiyn kúrdelene túsýi múmkin.
Aita keteiik, 28 aqpanda AQSh pen Izrail Iranǵa qarsy aýqymdy áskeri operatsiia bastaǵany, Tegeranda jarylys estilgeni habarlandy.
