Bazalyq mólsherleme eki ret tómendetilgennen keiin teńgeniń bolashaǵy týraly pikirtalas qaita jandandy. Alaida ulttyq valiýtanyń baǵamy tek Ulttyq banktiń sheshimderine ǵana táýeldi emes. Oǵan bir mezgilde munai baǵasy, infliatsiia, Ulttyq qordyń operatsiialary, import kólemi, álemdik ekonomikalyq ahýal jáne naryq qatysýshylarynyń kútýleri áser etedi.
Osy faktorlardyń qaisysy ekinshi jartyjyldyqta sheshýshi bolýy múmkin jáne jyl sońyna deiin teńge baǵamynan ne kútýge bolady? Bul týraly Qazaq Expert Club sarapshysy, qarjyger Saida Tleýlenova túsindirdi, dep habarlaidy dalanews.kz.
Sarapshynyń pikirinshe, teńgeni sońǵy ailarda qatań aqsha-kredit saiasaty, infliatsiianyń baiaýlaýy, Ulttyq qor operatsiialary jáne valiýta naryǵyndaǵy turaqty jaǵdai qoldap otyr. Maýsymda infliatsiia 10,3%-ǵa deiin tómendegen.
Sonymen qatar jyldyń ekinshi jartysynda importtyń artýy men shetel valiýtasyna suranystyń kóbeiýi teńgege qysym túsirýi múmkin. Eger munai baǵasy da tómendese, ulttyq valiýta birtindep álsireýi yqtimal.
Qarjygerdiń baǵalaýynsha, eń yqtimal stsenarii boiynsha jyl sońyna qarai dollar baǵamy 475–495 teńge aralyǵynda qalyptasady. Al munai baǵasy ósip, infliatsiia baiaýlasa, baǵam 465–480 teńge deńgeiinde bolýy múmkin.
Táýekel stsenariiinde, iaǵni munai baǵasy aitarlyqtai tómendep, syrtqy ekonomikalyq jaǵdai nasharlaǵan jaǵdaida dollar baǵamy 500 teńgeden asýy yqtimal. Degenmen sarapshy mundai nusqanyń yqtimaldyǵy tómen ekenin atap ótti.
Saida Tleýlenova biznes pen investorlar úshin baǵamnyń naqty deńgeiinen góri onyń turaqtylyǵy men boljamdylyǵy mańyzdy ekenin aitty. Onyń sózinshe, qazirgi jaǵdaida kúrt devalvatsiiadan góri teńgeniń birtindep ózgerýi áldeqaida yqtimal stsenarii bolyp otyr.
